Stock futures edge lower as traders await Nvidia, retail earnings

U.S. stock futures edged lower as Wall Street tried to extend a record-setting run, with traders now fixated on whether a handful of companies can justify the market’s latest push higher. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq are hovering near peaks, but the next test is concentrated: Nvidia’s results, along with earnings from major retailers, will help determine whether the rally rests on broad economic strength or on a narrow group of heavyweights carrying the indexes.

Nvidia’s first-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings call is set for Wednesday, May 20, at 2 p.m. Pacific time, 5 p.m. Eastern, covering a quarter that ended April 26. That report carries outsized weight because Nvidia’s most recently posted fiscal 2026 results showed quarterly revenue of $68.1 billion, full-year revenue of $215.9 billion and data center revenue of $62.3 billion in the quarter. For investors, those figures have turned the chipmaker into a market barometer for the artificial intelligence trade, the kind of stock that can move the whole market just by disappointing or exceeding already elevated expectations.

Retail earnings add a second layer to the story. Target is scheduled to report first-quarter 2026 results on Wednesday, May 20, from 8 a.m. to 9 a.m. Eastern, while Walmart will hold its first-quarter earnings call on Thursday, May 21, at 7 a.m. Central. Target’s previous quarterly update showed GAAP earnings per share of $2.27 and adjusted EPS of $1.30, while Walmart’s results will be watched for signs that households are still spending steadily despite lingering pressure from prices, credit costs and tariffs. The Home Depot’s last reported quarter offered another consumer read, with sales of $39.9 billion, comparable sales down 0.3% and net earnings of $3.4 billion, or $3.45 a share.

The market backdrop is being complicated by oil and bonds. CNBC said futures were little changed after the recent record week, while also noting that President Donald Trump warned Iran to “get moving” as oil jumped on fears of escalation. Bloomberg said the oil rally tied to the deadlock over the Iran war was fueling inflation concerns and helping drive a selloff in global bonds as traders increased bets that central banks may have to keep tightening policy. Reuters has warned that a bond-yield spike can be a risk for equities that are not prepared for it, especially if higher energy prices keep inflation sticky.

That is the tension hanging over the market now. If Nvidia confirms that AI spending is still running hot and retailers show resilient demand, the rally can broaden. If not, investors may be left with a more uncomfortable answer: that a record market is leaning too heavily on a few companies, just as oil and yields are starting to push back.