Teen summer jobs could hit lowest level since 1948

The shrinking summer job market for teenagers is becoming more than a seasonal blip. If this year’s forecast holds, fewer teens will collect the paychecks, workplace habits and early attachments to the labor force that once came with a first job, and that gap could echo well beyond July.

Challenger, Gray & Christmas projected that teens ages 16 to 19 will gain 790,000 jobs in May, June and July 2026, which would be the lowest summer total since the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics began tracking the series in 1948. Last summer’s 801,000 teen jobs was already the weakest summer for teen hiring in the 77-year history of the data. The previous low was 932,000 in 1949, during postwar demobilization, and the prior post-1948 low was 960,000 in 2010, during the recovery from the Great Recession.

The pressure is visible in the broader labor market. In April 2026, 5,193,000 workers ages 16 to 19 were employed, down from 5,487,000 in April 2025. Teen labor force participation stood at 33.8 percent, while the employment-population ratio was 29.5 percent. In the late 1990s, more than 2 million 16- to 19-year-olds typically worked summer jobs, a far larger pool than the one employers are drawing from today.

Economists and labor specialists point to several forces behind the slump. Inflation has made households more cautious, while rising oil and gas prices have weighed on employer costs and teen commuting. Businesses that once filled schedules with young workers, including amusement parks, restaurants, retailers, summer camps and other leisure-and-hospitality employers, have also become more selective as automation spreads and older workers compete for the same shifts. Some teens are opting for internships, college preparation, sports or gig work instead of a traditional summer job, while others are finding money through tutoring, online content creation, babysitting or mowing lawns.

Some local governments and employers are trying to blunt the damage. Denver is offering a $250 bonus to young people who work over the summer, and programs in Arizona have used Waymo rides to help teens reach jobs they might otherwise struggle to access. Those efforts may help a few young workers this season, but they also underscore the broader trend: the first rung on the career ladder is getting harder for teens to reach, and that makes the loss more consequential than a weak summer hiring headline.