Trump administration to trigger USMCA review, starting clock on expiration

The Trump administration is set to announce on Wednesday, July 1, that it will not extend the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, starting a formal review of the North American trade pact and a possible path toward expiration in 2036 if the three governments do not agree on new terms.

USMCA took effect on July 1, 2020, and its built-in sunset clause requires a joint review six years later. If the United States, Canada and Mexico all confirm they want to extend it, the pact rolls over for another 16 years. If they do not, the agreement can move into annual reviews and eventually expire on July 1, 2036.

The U.S. Trade Representative has been preparing for the review since at least September 16, 2025, when it opened a public comment process seeking input on implementation, compliance, the investment climate, and North American economic security and competitiveness. USTR followed that with a public hearing at the U.S. International Trade Commission in Washington, D.C., on December 3-5, 2025. Congressional Research Service says the 2026 review is the first of its kind in any U.S. free trade agreement.

USTR and Mexico launched the review process on March 5, 2026, then held a second round of negotiations in Washington on June 15-17. In a June 18 joint statement, Jamieson Greer and Mexican Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard said the two sides discussed rules of origin, economic security, agriculture, labor, environment, steel, aluminum and automobiles, and agreed to support a committee reviewing implementation of Chapter 12 sectoral annexes to improve regulatory compatibility.

The Government of Canada issued recommendations for the joint review on June 1, and on June 3 it said Minister Dominic LeBlanc and Chief Trade Negotiator Janice Charette met North American auto industry representatives ahead of the review. Canadian officials also pointed to broader trade tensions, including proposed Section 301 tariffs.

North American goods and services trade totaled an estimated $1.93 trillion in 2024, Council on Foreign Relations data show.