Trump Declares Major Combat Operations Against Iran, Khamenei Killed in Joint Strikes

The assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in a surprise overnight U.S.-Israeli airstrike on February 28 set off a cascade of consequences that has since reshaped the Middle East, closed one of the world's most critical oil chokepoints, and brought NATO to the brink of collapse.

Trump announced "major combat operations" against Iran in an overnight video statement, urging Iranians to "take over your government" as strikes hit sites and cities across the country. Beyond Khamenei, several other Iranian officials were killed and dozens of civilians died. Secretary of State Marco Rubio canceled a planned trip to Israel as the operation unfolded.

Iran responded immediately with missile and drone strikes targeting Israel, U.S. military bases, and U.S.-allied Gulf states. By March 4, Tehran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps formally announcing the closure on March 27. Traffic through the strait, which typically carries approximately 20% of the world's daily oil supply as well as significant volumes of liquefied natural gas, dropped to near zero. Major shipping firms suspended operations in the area, and U.S. officials alongside Wall Street analysts have warned oil prices could surge to $200 per barrel if the closure persists.

The February 28 operation did not arise in isolation. It followed a June 2025 campaign, later dubbed the "Twelve-Day War," in which Israel and the United States struck Iran's nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi warned after those strikes that Iran's enriched nuclear material remained "largely intact," with only one of the three targeted sites fully destroyed. On February 23, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly called Trump to say "the moment to strike Iran had come," five days before the operation launched. The strategic shift was decisive: where the Twelve-Day War targeted nuclear infrastructure, the February 28 strikes aimed squarely at decapitating the Iranian regime.

NATO allies, who were not consulted before the strikes began, have shown no appetite for joining efforts to reopen the strait. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius was blunt: "This is not our war, we have not started it." European officials have privately compared the conflict to Iraq and Afghanistan, fearing another open-ended military entanglement and describing any attempt to reopen the strait as "highly dangerous" given ongoing Iranian attacks on tankers.

Trump responded to allied reluctance by calling NATO a "paper tiger" in an interview published by the Daily Telegraph, declaring that U.S. withdrawal from the alliance is now "beyond reconsideration." "I was never swayed by NATO. I always knew they were a paper tiger, and Putin knows that too, by the way," Trump said. He is also weighing a "pay-to-play" model that would limit influence for members falling short of defense spending targets, along with a withdrawal of U.S. troops from Germany.

Rubio, considered one of the most pro-NATO voices in Trump's inner circle, described the allied response as "very disappointing" and signaled Trump would "reexamine" U.S. commitments once the conflict ends. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer offered a direct rebuttal, saying NATO "has kept us safe for many decades." Former head of the UK Armed Forces Gen Sir David Richards went further, warning that "large-scale multinational military planning is urgently needed" to reopen the strait and saying the U.S. approach to the conflict "has gone wrong."

With the strait sealed, oil markets strained, and the transatlantic alliance openly fracturing, the full strategic cost of the February 28 decision is still accumulating.