Trump says Iran deal or bombs decision is 50/50, eyes Sunday deadline

President Donald Trump put the Iran talks on a 24-hour clock Saturday, saying he would meet his negotiators later in the day and decide by Sunday whether the United States would accept a deal or “resume the war.” He described the odds as a “solid 50/50,” a blunt signal that diplomacy and military action were still running side by side.

Trump told reporters the two sides were “getting a lot closer” to a final agreement, but he made clear he would sign only a deal that met U.S. demands. That meant, in his words, “everything we want,” including blocking Iran from getting a nuclear weapon and settling the question of highly enriched uranium in a way Washington could accept.

The pressure around him reflected that same split-screen strategy. The White House had been weighing an Iranian proposal for indirect nuclear talks while also boosting U.S. forces in the Middle East, a posture that left the administration ready to pivot fast if the talks collapsed. On May 18, Trump said he had postponed a planned attack on Iran after appeals from the leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, underscoring how much regional diplomacy was still trying to pull the White House back from the edge.

Publicly, the latest signals were cautiously positive. Marco Rubio said in India that there had been “some progress” and that news could come later Saturday. In Tehran, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said the trend was toward “narrowing differences” and that positions had moved closer in recent days. Pakistan’s military said Field Marshal Asim Munir’s visit to Tehran had been “highly productive” and that it had produced encouraging progress toward a final understanding.

Still, the leverage on both sides remained real. Iran still held the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy route at the center of the talks, while Washington kept the threat of force alive. Trump’s tense call with Benjamin Netanyahu on May 20 showed how much the Israeli government worried that a diplomatic opening could delay or dilute military pressure. If the White House is preparing for bombs rather than bargaining, the clearest signs would be the collapse of the mediators’ draft, a renewed attack order, and a military posture that stays on alert instead of shifting back toward a deal.