Trump says Iran deal reached, Tehran calls reports speculative

Donald Trump said a “great settlement” with Iran was within reach and could be signed in Europe within days. Tehran answered that nothing had been finalized, with Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei calling talk of a signing time and place speculative.

Baghaei said a large part of the negotiating text had been completed, but he said the United States had repeatedly changed its positions during the talks. He also said Iran had not made a final decision on a possible agreement and would not compromise on its red lines. The clash in public messages left the strongest signal of all: Washington was talking as if a breakthrough was imminent, while Tehran was still holding back.

Trump said the Strait of Hormuz would reopen if a deal was reached. That route has become one of the central pressure points in the conflict because it historically carries about one-fifth of global oil and gas trade. Iran’s closure or disruption of the waterway has already cut shipping traffic sharply, underscoring how closely diplomacy, energy flows and military risk have become tied together.

The dispute comes against the backdrop of a war that began on February 28, 2026, when the United States and Israel launched strikes against Iran. Analysts and reporting say the conflict has killed thousands and displaced more than three million Iranians in the first two weeks alone. The fighting has also spread economic damage well beyond the region, with the Middle East conflict feeding fears of a prolonged shock to global trade and growth.

Energy markets have already priced in that risk. Brent crude has risen more than 55% since the start of the war, climbing from around $72 a barrel to nearly $120 at its peak. The international airline industry has nearly halved its 2026 profit forecast because of higher fuel costs tied to the conflict, a sign that even the prospect of a settlement has immediate market implications.

Trump has recently alternated between threats of further strikes and assertions that an agreement was close, a pattern that makes every new statement more consequential. Until the text is locked down, the terms are final and both sides say the same thing, declarations of a deal can move markets, shape diplomacy and raise the stakes for any next military move.