Trump says U.S. may be better off without USMCA deal

Donald Trump reopened the North American trade fight in Paris, saying the United States would do better without the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement and that he would prefer not to have a new pact, even as he left room to sign one. His comments landed while Washington and Mexico were already deep in a review process that could shape the rules for autos, agriculture and border supply chains across the continent.

“I would rather not have the agreement, but I may sign it,” Trump told reporters, adding, “We do better as a country if we don’t have an agreement.” For businesses that move parts, crops and finished goods across the border every day, the remark was less a policy paper than a pressure tactic. The immediate risk is not a sudden collapse of USMCA, but a prolonged stretch of uncertainty that can freeze investment, complicate shipping contracts and raise the odds of higher prices for consumers.

The timing was loaded. The United States and Mexico held a second negotiating round on June 16-17 in Washington, D.C., after an initial round on May 28-29 in Mexico City. The next round is scheduled for the week of July 20 in Mexico City. According to the U.S. Trade Representative, the talks have centered on agriculture, a level playing field, economic security, rules of origin for key industrial goods and regulatory compatibility in medical devices, pharmaceuticals and cosmetic products.

That makes the first pressure points easy to identify. Automakers and parts suppliers depend on rules of origin to keep shipments duty-free, while farm exporters need stable access to the Mexican market. The trade group representing General Motors, Ford and Stellantis has said North American auto manufacturing is at a competitive disadvantage to other countries that have trade deals, and it wants the review to address that imbalance. For border-state businesses, the pact underwrites the daily flow of components, produce and consumer goods that move back and forth in tightly timed supply chains.

The legal structure also limits how far Trump’s rhetoric can move the agreement overnight. Under Article 34.7, USMCA is set to terminate on July 1, 2036, unless all three countries confirm they want to continue it for another 16-year term. If one party does not agree to extend it at the joint review, the pact does not end immediately. It shifts into annual reviews, turning the process into a rolling source of leverage rather than an instant breakup.

That is why the 2026 review has become a focal point for broader trade disputes, especially over autos, dairy and farm access. The U.S. Trade Representative opened a public consultation process in September 2025 and scheduled a public hearing for November 17, 2025, underscoring that the administration is already treating the review as a formal test of the deal’s future. Canadian officials have sought to calm fears that Ottawa is being pushed aside, saying bilateral talks with Washington will accompany the trilateral review. For now, Trump’s message reads less like an immediate exit plan than a familiar attempt to raise the stakes before the next round of negotiations.