Trump turns 80 as court losses and GOP defiance test his power

Donald Trump is entering his 80th year with a split-screen presidency: he can still dominate Republican primaries and pressure lawmakers, yet courts and some members of his own party are beginning to show where his leverage stops. The contrast is becoming more important as the 2026 midterms approach, because Trump’s power has always rested not just on loyalty, but on the expectation that resistance to him carries a cost.

That cost is now looking less certain. Courts have pushed back on key parts of Trump’s agenda, his effort to wind down the Iran war has stalled, and his approval ratings have softened. In Congress, a few Republicans are starting to defy him rather than move in lockstep, a sign that Trump’s influence can still intimidate but no longer guarantees obedience. The result is a presidency that remains disruptive and agenda-setting, but increasingly constrained by institutions and by lawmakers who are calculating that Trump’s hold on the party may not be absolute forever.

The stakes rise sharply if Republicans lose control of one or both chambers in November. That would not just complicate Trump’s legislative ambitions. It would also accelerate the conversation about whether he is slipping into the lame-duck status he has tried to avoid. A White House adviser said the administration is working hard to stop that narrative from taking hold too soon. A former senior aide said Trump has privately mused about a third term in part because he does not want to be seen as irrelevant, a window into how much political identity, not just policy, is tied to continued dominance.

Even now, Trump still has tools that matter. His base remains firm, he can still shape primary fields, and he can still use aggressive trade policy and high-profile construction projects in Washington to signal strength. But the deeper question is not whether Trump can command attention. It is whether he can still convert that attention into durable control over Republican lawmakers, donors, and the party’s 2028 bench. If his grip weakens after the midterms, those groups will begin planning around a future in which Trump still looms over the GOP, but no longer sets its terms alone.