UAE Leaves OPEC, Deepening Rift With Saudi Arabia and Region

The United Arab Emirates broke with OPEC and OPEC+ on April 28, saying it would leave the cartel on May 1 and end nearly six decades of membership. The move removed OPEC’s third-largest producer, behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq, from a 65-year-old alliance that still exerts major influence over global crude supply and prices.

The decision had been building for years as Abu Dhabi pushed back against production restraints it viewed as too tight and sought more room to raise output. Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei said the exit followed a review of production policy and future capacity, and that the country wanted more freedom to pursue a target of 5 million barrels a day by 2027. He also said the move was not a reaction to Saudi Arabia’s production cuts, underscoring how the UAE was asserting its own energy agenda even as tensions with Riyadh widened.

The timing made the split about more than oil. Weeks of missile and drone attacks by Iran had already strained the UAE’s export routes through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for roughly a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows, and Emirati officials had said the country could join a U.S.-led effort to secure the waterway. That pointed to a broader strategy of autonomy, with Abu Dhabi leaning more directly on Washington and other partners for maritime security rather than relying on OPEC consensus to manage risk.

For markets, the near-term effect on prices was likely to be limited while Hormuz remained disrupted, but the longer-term implications were more significant. AP said the exit further weakened OPEC’s leverage over oil supplies and prices, while CNBC noted that the UAE wanted enough flexibility to expand output once exports normalized. In practice, the break deepened the Saudi-UAE rift, weakened cartel discipline, and signaled that Abu Dhabi now intended to balance energy policy, regional diplomacy, and security ties on its own terms.