UK inflation holds at 2.8% as petrol offsets slower food price rises

Higher petrol prices kept inflation feeling sticky even as supermarket shelves cooled. The Office for National Statistics said UK consumer prices rose 2.8% in the year to May 2026, unchanged from April and below economists’ 3.0% forecast. That left headline inflation stable, but not yet comfortable, because transport pushed prices higher while food and non-alcoholic drinks provided the biggest offset.

The ONS said transport made the largest upward contribution to monthly inflation in May, helped by higher airfares and petrol. Offsetting that rise were lower prices than in April for meat, vegetables, dairy products and domestic heating oil. The result was a split picture that captures the difference between the inflation rate on paper and the pressure households still feel at the pump and in monthly budgets.

Under the surface, price pressures remained firm. Core CPI rose to 2.6% from 2.5% in April, while services inflation climbed to 3.7% from 3.2%. That matters for the Bank of England because services prices are often tied to domestic wage costs, suggesting that underlying inflation is still not fully subdued even though the headline rate held steady. CPIH, the ONS measure that includes owner-occupiers’ housing costs, also stayed at 3.0%.

The reading landed one day before the Bank of England’s 18 June 2026 rate decision, with economists expecting the Monetary Policy Committee to keep Bank Rate at 3.75%. Markets slightly trimmed bets on a rate rise later this year after the inflation data, though the bank has already warned that price growth could pick up later in 2026 if energy shocks linked to the Middle East, including tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, feed through to broader costs.

Food remains one of the sharpest cost-of-living pressures. The Food Foundation said UK food prices were 30.7% higher than in April 2022, even after food inflation eased from 3.7% in April 2026 to 3.0% in May. That cooler monthly pace offers some relief, but it still leaves families paying far more than they were three years ago.

The May figures, released by the ONS on 17 June, showed an economy where headline inflation looks stable but everyday spending still does not. The next consumer price inflation release is due on 22 July 2026, and it will show whether cheaper food can keep offsetting petrol-led pressure, or whether the Bank of England is still facing a stubborn final stretch on inflation.