U.S. declines to renew USMCA, setting annual trade reviews
Washington declined to lock in USMCA for 16 more years, pushing the pact into annual reviews and prolonging uncertainty for autos, farms and factories.
The United States declined to renew the USMCA in its current form, pushing North American trade into a year-to-year review process. The decision came during the pact’s mandatory joint review on July 1, when U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Washington would keep the deal in force for now but would not extend it for another 16 years.
A renewal at the July 1 review could have locked in the agreement through 2042. Instead, the pact moves into annual reviews and could expire in 2036 unless the three countries agree on changes. The United States said it will continue talks with Mexico and Canada, and the next step is a third round of bilateral negotiations with Mexico planned for the week of July 20.
The White House is centering the fight around trade deficits, manufacturing reshoring and supply-chain security. The first bilateral round of talks focused on automotive rules of origin, steel and aluminum, and economic security, all issues with direct consequences for parts makers, assemblers and the broader industrial base. A more uncertain trade regime can slow investment decisions, delay sourcing plans and raise costs for companies that depend on components moving across the border multiple times before a finished vehicle or machine is complete.
The review was preceded by a public consultation process and a public hearing, and Greer reported to the House Ways and Means Committee and the Senate Finance Committee in December 2025 on how the agreement was functioning ahead of the July 1 review. USMCA was negotiated by President Donald Trump in his first term, yet his own administration is now refusing to renew it automatically.
Dominic LeBlanc, Canada’s minister responsible for U.S. trade, said the agreement remains fully in force until 2036 and that Canada, the United States and Mexico all took part in the trilateral review. Marcelo Ebrard, Mexico’s economy minister, said Mexico is trying to address U.S. concerns and has discussed a 10-year continuation with periodic reviews as a fallback.
In 2024, USMCA member countries exported about $3.09 trillion in goods, with the United States the bloc’s largest exporter. Canada is also tied to U.S. farm and food trade, buying about 62.0% of Canada’s agricultural exports and supplying 54.8% of Canada’s agricultural imports.
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