US emerges weakened as Iran war drags on, Pakistan mediates talks

Pakistan has become the go-between in a war that has left the United States looking weaker on the battlefield, in diplomacy and in the energy market. After the United States and Israel opened strikes on Iran on 28 February 2026, the fighting spread across Israel, U.S. military bases in the region and military and civilian sites in Arab states, while the Strait of Hormuz was closed and regional fuel and gas flows were thrown into disarray.

The original objective was sweeping. Washington and Israel said the strikes were aimed at regime change and at Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile program. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, was killed in the attacks, and Iran later installed Khamenei’s son as successor. But the killing did not end the war. Iran answered with counter-strikes, and its ability to hit Israeli territory and U.S. positions signaled that deterrence had not been restored, even after the damage to Iranian military infrastructure and defenses.

Donald Trump hardened the U.S. line on 6 March, saying only Iran’s “unconditional surrender” would be acceptable and threatening attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure and bridges if no deal was reached. He set three deadlines, 21 March, 23 March and 7 April, but the strikes he threatened were postponed after those dates passed. Instead, Pakistan arranged a conditional two-week ceasefire on 8 April, later extended, turning Islamabad into the central broker for talks that had originally followed failed indirect U.S.-Iran contacts and the October 2025 snapback of sanctions by the UK, Germany and France under the 2015 nuclear deal.

Those negotiations have focused on the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s nuclear and ballistic programs, reconstruction, sanctions and a long-term peace agreement. A House of Commons Library briefing said the February talks centered on Iran’s nuclear and ballistic program and the timing of sanctions relief. Oman’s foreign minister, Badr Albusaidi, said he was “confident” that “a peace deal is within our reach” and that there had been “substantial” progress. Still, by mid-June the reported preliminary deal remained secret, and the nuclear issue was unresolved.

The economic bill is already visible. Closing the Strait of Hormuz shook one of the world’s most important fuel and gas routes and damaged regional energy production, while reporting suggested a preliminary deal would reopen the waterway and lift the U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports. That is a measure of the war’s outcome: Washington may have weakened Iran’s leadership and defenses, but it has also ended up negotiating over access, sanctions and a ceasefire instead of a clean victory.