US lawmakers worry as USMCA review nears, Trump questions renewal

Congress is treating the coming USMCA review as a stress test for prices, jobs and campaign politics as much as for diplomacy. The first mandatory joint review in any U.S. free trade agreement is set to begin on July 1, and President Donald Trump has already fueled alarm by saying he is “not looking to renew” the pact.

The stakes are broad. The Congressional Research Service says USMCA underpins roughly $2 trillion in annual trade, and U.S.-Mexico trade in goods and services reached $976.1 billion in 2025. If the United States, Canada and Mexico fail to agree in 2026 to extend the deal for another 16 years, the agreement stays in force but moves to annual reviews for up to 10 years, before expiring in 2036 if no extension is reached.

Lawmakers know that kind of uncertainty can land hard in farm states, manufacturing corridors and border districts. The Congressional Research Service says the review provision was controversial during the original negotiations because members warned that a looming sunset could chill private investment. That concern is resurfacing now as businesses try to plan for supply chains, capital spending and pricing decisions while the three governments negotiate under pressure.

The U.S. and Mexico formally launched bilateral negotiations on May 28, while Canada has officially told the other parties it wants the agreement renewed. Canadian trade minister Dominic LeBlanc and chief negotiator Janice Charette have been trying to keep the trilateral framework intact, even as Ottawa and Washington continue separate talks. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has blamed Canada’s retaliatory tariffs for slowing progress, and Canadian officials have tried to steady markets by saying the agreement will remain in place for years.

On Capitol Hill, the issue is already moving through the political bloodstream. Several senators, including Catherine Cortez Masto, Mark Warner and Ben Ray Luján, have sent letters ahead of the review, and the House Agriculture Committee held a June 10 hearing titled “Agricultural Perspectives on the Future of the USMCA.” Farm groups are pressing to preserve trilateral rules, arguing that the pact supports millions of jobs and gives producers, ranchers and agribusinesses the certainty they need to invest.

That is why the review is becoming a domestic political test for Washington, Ottawa and Mexico City alike. For lawmakers heading into a midterm year, the fight is not just about trade architecture. It is about whether they can protect exporters, shield consumers from higher costs and convince voters that North American trade still works.