U.S. tariffs, climate pressure drive global wine trade to new lows

Global wine trade ended 2025 under a double squeeze: U.S. tariffs made bottles more expensive in one of the industry’s biggest markets while drinkers around the world kept cutting back. The International Organisation of Vine and Wine said exports fell 4.7% in volume to 94.8 million hectolitres and 6.7% in value to 33.8 billion euros, the weakest volume reading since 2009.

At the same time, global consumption dropped 2.7% to 208 million hectolitres, the lowest level since 1957. The OIV said the year’s results reflected climate change, shifting consumer preferences and geopolitical uncertainty, a mix that has left producers with less room to absorb new shocks. The 2025 state-of-the-sector report was prepared under Director General John Barker, with statistical coordination from Giorgio Delgrosso and Yue Chang.

The downturn built on a year of warning signs. In April, the OIV said 2024 consumption had already fallen 3.3% to 214.2 million hectolitres, the weakest since 1961, while production slid to 226 million hectolitres, the lowest in more than six decades. That meant the 2025 decline was not a one-off hit but part of a longer slide in demand and output.

Trade policy added fresh pressure. In July, European wine and spirits were told they would face a 15% U.S. import tariff unless a different deal was reached, and the U.S. Wine Trade Alliance urged Washington to remove wine from the tariff proposal, warning of layoffs and uncertainty. The alliance said imported European wine drives nearly $24 billion in U.S. economic activity each year and supports hundreds of thousands of American jobs.

European producers also warned of the damage. On August 21, the Comité Européen des Entreprises Vins said EU wine exports to the United States were worth more than 4.88 billion euros in 2024 and argued that the tariff would reduce turnover, suspend investments and cut export volumes. The group said each euro generated by European wine exports to the United States creates $4.50 in American distribution and hospitality revenue, underscoring how the fallout reaches importers, retailers, restaurants and logistics firms on both sides of the Atlantic.

The broader risk is that tariffs now land on an industry with less cushion than before. Climate stress is squeezing supply, changing tastes are weakening demand, and consumers facing broader economic strain are becoming more selective about discretionary spending. For wine producers, importers and restaurant buyers, that leaves a market where costs are rising just as the customer base is shrinking.