Vietnam military document outlines preparations for potential U.S. aggression

An internal Vietnamese Ministry of Defence document titled "The 2nd U.S. Invasion Plan," completed in August 2024 and described in a report by human-rights group The 88 Project, describes preparations for a potential American "war of aggression" and considered the United States a "belligerent" power, according to coverage by the Associated Press. The AP story, datelined HANOI, said the report was "released Tuesday."

The document, as presented in The 88 Project's report and summarized by the AP, frames the United States as an external threat and signals a military planning posture that runs in parallel to recent diplomatic warming. "A year after Vietnam elevated its relations with Washington to the highest diplomatic level, an internal document shows its military was taking steps to prepare for a possible American 'war of aggression' and considered the United States a 'belligerent' power, according to a report released Tuesday," the AP account says.

Beyond direct preparations for potential conflict, the report highlights an institutional fear within Vietnam's security apparatus of external actors fomenting domestic unrest. "More than just exposing Hanoi’s duality in approach toward the U.S, the document confirms a deep-seated fear of external forces fomenting an uprising against the Communist leadership in a so-called 'color revolution,' like the 2004 Orange Revolution in Ukraine, or the 1986 Yellow Revolution in the Philippines," the AP summary states. Those references indicate the military views certain foreign-backed civil movements as threats to regime stability and has factored such scenarios into its planning.

Key details about provenance and content remain limited in public reporting. The 88 Project is identified as the organization that produced the report on the document, and the Associated Press has summarized its findings; the supplied coverage does not include the method by which The 88 Project obtained the document, any independent verification details, nor any official response from the Vietnamese government or the U.S. State Department. The publicly available material does not disclose whether the document carries formal classification, who authored it, or what specific measures the military planned beyond noting it was "taking steps to prepare."

The revelations pose immediate questions for both domestic governance and international diplomacy. For Vietnamese civilian authorities, an apparent internal military plan that sharply frames the United States as a "belligerent" complicates a narrative of closer bilateral ties and raises issues of oversight and transparency in civil-military relations. For Washington and regional partners, the document underscores the volatility of signaling in Asia's security environment: diplomatic elevation does not preclude contingency planning by security services that perceive heightened risk.

The reporting gaps are substantive and point to next steps for accountability and verification. Journalists and analysts should seek a copy of the document from The 88 Project and ask how it was authenticated, request the exact publication date of the AP coverage, and press the Vietnamese Ministry of Defence and the Vietnamese government for confirmation and comment. U.S. officials should be asked to respond to the characterization of their country as a "belligerent" power. Public scrutiny of these questions is essential to assess whether the document reflects formal policy, internal contingency planning, or isolated analysis within the military.

The document as reported underscores the tensions between outward diplomatic engagement and inward security calculations. Transparent answers from the institutions involved are required for voters, lawmakers, and regional partners to evaluate implications for policy, civil liberties, and democratic accountability.