WMO warns El Niño is forming, raising odds of extreme weather</final
El Niño is forming in the tropical Pacific, with odds above 80 percent and a hotter planet set to magnify drought, floods and heat.
El Niño is returning as a natural Pacific cycle, but it is doing so on top of a planet that is already much hotter. That combination is what makes this warning more dangerous for families, farmers, public health systems and insurers: the warming oceans and atmosphere can turn a familiar pattern into more intense heat, deeper drought, heavier rain and more costly disasters.
The World Meteorological Organization said on June 2 that El Niño conditions are developing in the tropical Pacific and put the probability of El Niño during June-August 2026 at 80 percent. The agency said the chance it lasts until at least November is near or above 90 percent, and most forecast models point to an event that will be at least moderate and possibly strong. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center also said El Niño is likely to emerge soon, with an 82 percent chance in May-July 2026 and a 96 percent chance of continuing through Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27.
Scientists say the key risk is not just the ocean pattern itself, but the hotter baseline it now enters. Global temperatures have already risen about 1.3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, and the WMO says climate change does not necessarily make El Niño more frequent or more intense. It does, however, amplify its effects because warmer air can hold more moisture and warmer oceans can feed stronger extremes. Piers Forster put it bluntly: “when El Niño arrives on top of existing climate change, impacts become more intense and more damaging.”
That means the impacts will not land evenly. Southern South America and parts of Central Asia often get more rain, while Central America and Australia can dry out. Europe can face intensified heatwaves. In the worst cases, the pattern can deepen drought, strain food and water supplies, worsen disease spread and raise the odds of crop failure as harvests are already being stressed by record heat.
The warning also carries a broader climate signal. WMO-linked reporting in late May said an El Niño expected toward the end of 2026 could raise the odds that 2027 becomes the next record-breaking year, even though 2024 holds the current global temperature record. The agency has pointed to the 2015-16 El Niño as a stark precedent: paired with greenhouse-gas-driven warming, it helped drive severe heat, drought and flooding. In Papua New Guinea, drought during that event affected about 40 percent of nearly nine million people and caused widespread food shortages.
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