Analysis

Marlies aim to finish Penguins, Colorado-Chicago series resets at 1-1

Toronto can turn a 2-0 lead into a chokehold with another clutch Pezzetta night, while Colorado and Chicago hit Rosemont tied 1-1 after two games defined by late goals.

Chris Morales··2 min read
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Marlies aim to finish Penguins, Colorado-Chicago series resets at 1-1
Source: theahl.com

Toronto brought the real leverage home with it. The Marlies opened the Eastern Conference Finals with back-to-back road wins over Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, and Game 3 is the kind of night that can turn a tight series into a climb too steep for the Penguins. Michael Pezzetta has been the difference so far, burying the winner with 1:36 left in regulation in Game 1 and then ending Game 2 in overtime to give Toronto a 2-1 edge and a 2-0 series lead.

The hook for Toronto is not just the score line, but the split in the matchup. In John Gruden’s three seasons behind the Marlies bench, Toronto is 5-0 in Wilkes-Barre and 0-3 at home against the Penguins. That is the odd shape of this series: the Marlies have owned the rink in Pennsylvania, but now they have to prove they can close out the one building where that edge has not traveled with them. Wilkes-Barre/Scranton also had the best road regular-season mark in franchise history at 25-7-3-1, and the Penguins have won three of four road games in these playoffs, so this is no dead team walking into Toronto.

AI-generated illustration
AI-generated illustration

Toronto’s late-game profile is the other number that matters. William Villeneuve has a four-game point streak, and the Marlies are 10-0 in the postseason when he records a point. When he does not, they are 0-5. Add in Toronto’s 12 third-period goals over its last seven games, plus the series-clinching goal with 11.3 seconds left in Game 5 against Cleveland, and the pattern is clear: this group keeps finding a way when the clock starts to squeeze. Marc Johnstone, back after missing four games, helped set up Pezzetta’s Game 1 winner after two seasons with Wilkes-Barre/Scranton from 2023 to 2025.

Data visualization chart
Data Visualisation

Out West, Colorado and Chicago walked into Game 3 tied 1-1, and the tone of the series has already been set by special teams and late pressure. The Wolves took Game 1, 3-2, behind a 3-for-5 power play and 35 saves from Cayden Primeau. Colorado answered in Game 2, 5-2, with two goals in 52 seconds late in the third period to flip the game and head to Rosemont with the series even. Chicago has already banked six one-goal playoff wins, which tells you how thin the margin is whenever the Wolves get the game into a one-shot fight.

There was even a reminder beyond the playoff bracket that the AHL’s prospects are never far from the biggest stage. Konsta Helenius scored Finland’s golden goal at 10:42 of the first overtime in a 1-0 win over Switzerland, and Finland claimed its third world title in the last seven tournaments. For a league built on what comes next, that was a clean reminder that the same names driving these series can show up anywhere.

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