Sam Herder breaks down his early FCS top 15 for 2026 season
Montana State still looks like the cleanest title bet, but the bigger story is the crowded tier behind it, where schedules, retention, and coaching continuity could flip the bracket.
1. Montana State
Herder’s message starts here: the championship tier is tiny, and Montana State sits in it alone until somebody proves otherwise. The Bobcats return a bulk of their offense, all of their linebackers and safeties, and eight of their top 11 tacklers, which is the kind of retention that travels in January as well as September.
2. Montana
The Grizzlies are the clearest test case for whether star power can survive a coaching change. Bobby Hauck’s surprise exit puts Bobby Kennedy in charge, and Montana still has Keali’i Ah Yat, Eli Gillman, Brooks Davis, Peyton Wing, and Solomon Tuliaupupu, but the line and the defensive backbone have to be rebuilt fast.
3. South Dakota State
The Jackrabbits are the first reminder that “down year” in Brookings still means title-level talent. South Dakota State finished 9-5, lost in the second round for the first time in the 2020s, and now gets Chase Mason back in a second season under Dan Jackson, which keeps the floor high even after the playoff stumble.
4. UC Davis
This is the team that feels most dangerous if you are looking for the next breakthrough, not just another good season. UC Davis is coming off back-to-back quarterfinal appearances, and Tim Plough’s offense has posted a 69.0 percent completion rate over his first two seasons, with Jordan Fisher, Samuel Gbatu Jr., Rex Connors, and Winston Williams giving the Aggies real knockout ability.
5. Illinois State
The Redbirds are no longer a cute October story after making the 2025 national title game as an unseeded team and becoming the first FCS team to win four straight road playoff games. The question now is whether Brock Spack’s group can answer the quarterback, defensive line, and cornerback questions without losing the identity that took it all the way to Nashville.
6. Tarleton State
Tarleton is the kind of program that has moved from novelty to real problem. The Texans are coming off a historic 2025 campaign, they have a third straight 12-game regular season, and their 2026 slate mixes seven UAC games with four FCS nonconference dates and an FBS trip, which is exactly the kind of schedule that can harden a contender.
7. Rhode Island
The Rams have lived in the edge of the national title argument for two straight seasons, and that is what makes them so interesting. Rhode Island went 11-3 in each of the last two years, lost in the second round both times, and now has an eight-game CAA schedule plus a trip to Temple that will tell you whether the ceiling is higher than the résumé.
8. Villanova
Villanova has the look of a program that knows exactly how to survive November. The Wildcats are coming off a 12-3 season, reached the quarterfinals for the third time since 2021, and made their first semifinal appearance since 2010, which is the sort of postseason mileage that keeps a team in the bracket conversation even when the conference picture shifts.
9. South Dakota
The Coyotes have earned the right to be treated like more than a spoiler. South Dakota went 10-5, reached the quarterfinals for the third straight year, and now hands the program to first-year head coach Matt Vitzthum, with a 2026 schedule that includes Boise State and a late-November trip to South Dakota State.
10. Idaho
Idaho’s path is simpler to explain than it is to survive: the Vandals have nine Big Sky games, two FCS nonconference dates, and an FBS trip to Utah, which means there will be almost no breathing room. That kind of schedule is why Idaho belongs in the opening title debate even if the most likely outcome is another fight for playoff positioning first.
11. Tennessee Tech
If you want a program that is trying to buy speed in the right way, Tennessee Tech is the clearest case. The Golden Eagles signed the No. 1-ranked transfer portal class by 247Sports, and that level of influx is how a mid-tier program starts turning respect into staying power.
12. Mercer
Mercer has the kind of talent base that keeps appearing in award conversations, and that matters. The Bears are bringing back the profile of a program that produced Mercer’s Andrew Zock and Braden Atkinson as national award winners, and the 2026 schedule adds Georgia Tech to a SoCon slate that will reveal whether the ceiling is quarterfinals or something more.
13. Southeastern Louisiana
This is the sort of team that keeps showing up in serious preseason conversation even when it is not getting the loudest brand-name hype. Craig Haley included Southeastern Louisiana among the Top 25-caliber programs still worth close attention, which is the line between being relevant and being able to actually threaten a bracket once the matchups start to tilt.
14. Idaho State
The Bengals belong here because quarterback play keeps changing the math in the Big Sky. Craig Haley singled out Idaho State’s Jordan Cooke as one of the league’s talented quarterbacks, and in this subdivision that alone can be enough to turn a fringe team into a real Saturday problem.
15. Abilene Christian
Abilene Christian has the kind of schedule that forces a verdict instead of allowing a narrative. The Wildcats face Texas Tech, Idaho, Mercer, Tarleton State, and a full UAC slate, so if they are going to belong in the national-title conversation, they will have to prove it against teams that already know how to live in that space.
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