Amelia Earhart emerges as Epsom Oaks favourite after Precise withdrawal

Precise’s withdrawal has turned the Betfred Oaks from an open classic into a race Amelia Earhart now has to lose, and Aidan O’Brien’s Cheshire Oaks winner arrives at Epsom Downs Racecourse with the draw, the rider and the recent form to justify that status.

Friday’s Group 1 is over 1m4f6y for three-year-old fillies, with £625,000 guaranteed prize money, nine runners and going described as good to soft with light rain after 33 millimeters of rain fell at Epsom on June 1 and 2. In a race that has already narrowed, the ground has become part of the story as much as the field size.

Amelia Earhart is drawn in stall 4 and has Ryan Moore aboard, a clear sign she is the first choice among the Ballydoyle fillies. She comes here off a 2-length win in the Cheshire Oaks, a performance that showed she could stay the trip and still quicken when asked. That is exactly the profile Epsom tends to reward when the summer ground is not fast and the race becomes a test of balance, patience and timing.

O’Brien has plenty of support around his leading hope. Sugar Island, who finished fourth in the Cheshire Oaks, is drawn in stall 3 with Ronan Whelan up, while Cameo starts from stall 9 after finishing fifth on her seasonal reappearance before winning the Lingfield Oaks Trial by 4 3/4 lengths. The stable depth matters because it shows Amelia Earhart is not only the obvious pick on form, but the filly the yard is trusting to carry its classic hopes.

The danger is real, though. Juddmonte’s Legacy Link is in stall 1 for John and Thady Gosden after a Fillies’ Mile fourth and a Musidora Stakes win, form that makes her a serious classic player. That Musidora success was John Gosden’s ninth in the race, tying Sir Henry Cecil’s record, and the market has responded by installing Amelia Earhart as the favorite with Legacy Link and Thundering On next in the betting.

The rain has done more than soften the track. It has sharpened the test. Hayley Turner has already noted that the slow early pace in the Cheshire Oaks may have made that race look more speed-driven than Epsom will be, and that warning hangs over the entire field. Nine-runner Oaks fields have happened before in wet years, including 2018 when only nine fillies ran after 21 millimeters of rain softened the track.

If Amelia Earhart handles the ground and confirms the promise of Chester, she will not just win a classic. She will set the terms for the rest of the top-level filly campaign and move O’Brien a step closer to a record-extending 12th Oaks victory.