Chief Wallabee Opens as 2-1 Favorite for $1 Million Florida Derby

Michael and Katherine Ball's Chief Wallabee drew post 2 and was installed as the narrow 2-1 morning-line favorite for the Grade 1 Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park on March 28, setting up what looks like a genuine three-way shootout for a million dollars and a serious Kentucky Derby audition.

The Constitution colt, a TDN Rising Star trained by Ryan Thompson, enters off a runner-up finish in the GII Coolmore Fountain of Youth last month in just his second career start. That result, combined with his Gulfstream debut victory, makes him the class of a nine-horse field on paper. But the morning line tells you how tight this race figures to be: the top three choices are separated by a single point of probability.

Wathnan Racing's Commandment, trained by Brad Cox, actually beat Chief Wallabee in that Fountain of Youth, and he opens as the 5-2 second choice from post 4. The Into Mischief colt enters as the Fountain of Youth winner, and Cox has one of the better post-draw records in the game when it comes to translating a prep win into graded-stakes success.

Third on the morning line at 3-1 from post 6 is Nearly, the Centennial Farms entry by Not This Time. What makes Nearly interesting is the streak: three consecutive wins heading into this spot, the most recent a victory in the GIII Holy Bull Stakes on Jan. 31. Like Commandment, Nearly carries a win streak into this race, which means the three horses projected to go off at 3-1 or shorter have each won their last race or finished a close second in a Grade 2.

The fourth-best morning-line price belongs to The Puma at 9-2, and Gustavo Delgado's Essential Quality colt may be the most fascinating entrant in the field. He ran second to Chief Wallabee in his Gulfstream debut, then finished third in the Sam F. Davis, then turned around and upset the GIII Tampa Bay Derby on March 7, both prep races at 1 1/16 miles. Now he steps up to nine horses and post 8 in a Grade 1. The upset label on the Tampa Bay Derby win matters: it means he was not the expected winner, which keeps the public from fully pricing in his trajectory.

The rest of the field fills out with Sam F. Davis runner-up Wayne's Law (Tiz the Law) at 15-1, Redland Rebels (Uncle Chuck) also at 15-1, and a pair of 20-1 shots in Timeless Victory (By My Standards) and Albus (Yaupon). Gregarious (Mo Town) rounds out the nine-horse field at 50-1.

Florida Derby Day shapes up as a full afternoon at Gulfstream, with 14 races on the card, first post at 11:30 a.m. ET, and 10 stakes races totaling $2.675 million in purses across five graded events. The Curlin Florida Derby is the centerpiece, and the morning line makes clear this is not a race with an overwhelming favorite. At 2-1, Chief Wallabee is the pick to beat, but Commandment already beat him once, and Nearly hasn't lost in three tries.