Constitution River faces tough French Derby draw in stall 15

Constitution River’s French Derby mission took a sharp turn when the colt was given stall 15 in a 16-runner field, a wide berth that turns Sunday’s 184th Prix du Jockey Club into more than a test of class. At Chantilly over 2,100 metres, the draw has changed the race shape for a favorite that was expected to control the conversation from a more comfortable position.

The market reacted immediately. Coral pushed Constitution River from 6-4 to 13-8 after the draw, while Paddy Power went out to 2-1, a clear sign that the outside post has forced bettors to reassess how cleanly the colt can get into the race. The concern is not just the number beside his name. It is the trip that number can create: extra ground into the first stages, the risk of being trapped wide if Ryan Moore tries to slot in too late, and the chance that Moore is forced to make a tactical call earlier than planned.

That matters at Chantilly, where a wide draw can turn a straightforward assignment into a race against geometry. Moore now has to decide whether to use early energy to find a position or accept the loss of ground and hope Constitution River’s finishing power is enough to overcome it. For a horse with less experience going right-handed, that dilemma is even sharper. Aidan O’Brien said the situation had become more complicated, and this is the kind of classic-race problem that can make a favorite look vulnerable without ever questioning the horse’s raw ability.

History backs up the concern. No winner of the Prix du Jockey Club has overcome that kind of outside post since New Bay in 2015, when the colt scored from stall 13. That is a hard marker for Constitution River to beat from stall 15, especially in a field of 16 where several other Ballydoyle runners could also influence how fast the race is run and where the key positions are secured.

O’Brien has not often found this race easy to solve. France Galop’s record shows he had sent out 38 runners in the Prix du Jockey Club before his 2025 victory with Camille Pissarro, and his earlier win came in 2021 with St Mark’s Basilica. Even with that résumé, this version of the French Derby now demands more than talent. Constitution River may still be the best horse in the line-up, but from stall 15 he will likely need to prove it in a race where position, rhythm and restraint could decide everything.