Kentucky Derby Futures Shift After Key 100-Point Prep Races

Potente's gutsy San Felipe victory in just his second career start reshuffled the 2026 Kentucky Derby futures market, while the race's biggest story was what it did to Brant: the $3 million Bob Baffert purchase went off as the 4-5 favorite and tired to finish fifth, watching his odds balloon to 40-1 at Caesars Sportsbook and matching that number when Churchill Downs opened its fifth pari-mutuel pool on March 13.

Potente, also trained by Baffert, closed gamely at Santa Anita to collect 50 points from the San Felipe and now sits at 15-1 in Churchill's pool. The contrast within a single barn tells the whole story of where this prep season stands. Baffert's situation is genuinely complicated: Plutarch, who won the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, is already off the Derby trail entirely; Buetane is pointed to the Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs; and Litmus Test, who took the Los Alamitos Futurity last December, was third in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn in his 3-year-old debut and is being considered for another qualifying prep.

Churchill's fifth of six pari-mutuel pools ran from March 13 through March 15, offering 39 individual horses plus an "all other 3-year-olds" option that opened at 12-1. Paladin led the board at 5-1, a number backed by a convincing resume: he won the Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct on December 6, 2025, then returned to win the Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes on February 14. Commandment checked in as the second-shortest price at 6-1, with Nearly at 8-1 and Chief Wallabee at 10-1 rounding out the single-digit tier. Everyone else on the 39-horse list starts at 15-1 or longer.

The field arriving at the Derby still lacks a dominant figure. Seven weeks out from the first leg of the Triple Crown, no horse had emerged as a formidable favorite, a vacuum that makes the futures market genuinely interesting rather than a foregone conclusion. The Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park, a 100-point race, went to Fulleffort on March 21, though at 90-1 in the futures pool, the market clearly isn't treating that victory as a Churchill Downs coronation in progress.

Since the winter book closed in January, the landscape changed considerably. Winter-book favorite Ted Noffey, who won the Claiborne Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland in October, was withdrawn from Derby consideration along with several other 3-year-olds. Their departures opened the door for a cluster of Florida-based prospects who have since moved into the top-shelf conversation.

Class President won the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn on March 1, earning 50 points and landing at 20-1 in the pool. The Rebel's second leg of significance was Litmus Test's third-place finish, which, combined with his December Futurity win, kept him relevant enough for connections to seek another prep opportunity despite his 50-1 current price.

With the final round of major qualifying races distributing the largest point allocations still ahead, the futures board should continue moving. Paladin's back-to-back wins give him the clearest narrative, but at 5-1 in a pool this wide open, the market is essentially saying the 2026 Kentucky Derby remains anyone's race.