Nick Tammaro takes over Kentucky Derby morning line at Churchill Downs

Nick Tammaro stepped into Churchill Downs’ most visible handicapping job with a line that already told the story: Renegade was expected to be the Kentucky Derby 152 favorite, but not by much, with Commandment and Further Ado pressed close behind. The first Derby morning line of Tammaro’s Churchill tenure was shaping up as less a declaration of superiority than a snapshot of a wide-open race.

That is the pressure packed into the role Mike Battaglia held for 51 years. Churchill Downs announced on April 3 that Battaglia would retire ahead of the 44-day Spring Meet, ending a run that began in 1974. Churchill said Battaglia correctly named the Kentucky Derby favorite 39 times in 51 runnings, a 76.5% success rate, and the track planned to honor him during the racing program on Sunday, April 26.

Tammaro’s task is different from simply picking the winner. He has to anticipate how the betting public will distribute money across a 20-horse field, where one strong workout, one missed work, one good gallop or even backside chatter can still shift the market. In an April 16 update from Churchill Downs, Tammaro projected Renegade at 9-2, Commandment at 5-1 and Further Ado at 6-1, while saying Renegade had to be the favorite and that no horse was likely to be odds-on, or even close.

The assignment fits Tammaro’s path through the sport. He has spent nearly two decades in racing as a handicapper, track announcer, oddsmaker and player-development executive. His interest in linemaking was sparked after watching friend Travis Stone work as an oddsmaker at Saratoga Race Course, and that curiosity eventually led him into oddsmaking roles at tracks including Sam Houston Race Park and Keeneland. Churchill Downs said he also serves as an expert handicapper at TwinSpires, track announcer and Player Development Manager at Sam Houston.

His background stretches back to Houston, where his father took him to Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots with a sandwich and a Racing Form, then later to Trinity Meadows after it opened in 1991 west of Fort Worth. Trinity Meadows closed in 1996, but the memories helped send him toward the job now in front of him: setting the opening number for the Derby the morning the gate opens on its 152nd running.

Churchill Downs’ post-position draw for the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks was set for Saturday, April 25, between Races 3 and 4 from 2:15 to 2:45 p.m. ET, weather permitting, with Opening Day starting at 11:30 a.m. and the first race at 12:45 p.m. The bigger stakes arrive a week later, when the market Tammaro helps frame will feed one of racing’s biggest betting days, including last year’s $122.4 million win-place-show pool, $30.1 million exacta pool, $35.5 million trifecta pool and $15.5 million superfecta pool.