Analysis

Parchment Party looms as heavy favorite in Isaac Murphy Marathon Stakes

Parchment Party’s 1 1/2-mile form makes him the one to beat, but Churchill’s nine-horse marathon could turn on trip.

David Kumar··2 min read
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Parchment Party looms as heavy favorite in Isaac Murphy Marathon Stakes
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Parchment Party heads to Churchill Downs with the rare profile bettors want in a marathon: proven stamina, recent sharpness and a record that already stretches beyond the assigned trip. The Bill Mott trainee will be the 2-1 morning-line favorite in the eighth running of the $200,000 Isaac Murphy Marathon Stakes, a listed 1 1/2-mile dirt race for 4-year-olds and up that will go as race 9 on the April 29 card with a 4:56 p.m. EDT post time.

The case for the Pin Oak Stud runner starts with the distances he has already mastered. Parchment Party has won his last three main-track starts from 1 1/2 miles to 1 3/4 miles, a stretch that includes last summer’s Birdstone Stakes and Belmont Gold Cup at Saratoga Race Course. The Belmont Gold Cup victory sent him to the Melbourne Cup, adding an international campaign to a résumé that already marks him as one of the most seasoned stayers in the field.

He returned to action in style at Oaklawn Park, where he won the Temperence Hill Stakes on March 28 by a half-length over Jokestar. WinStar Farm said he had taken the winter off after his trip to Australia for the Melbourne Cup in early November, and that layoff did not dull his edge. From post 2 with John Velazquez aboard, he looks set up to get a clean trip in a race that rewards patience as much as class.

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Photo by Tom Fisk

Still, the Murphy is not supposed to be a parade. The field of nine includes Brazil-bred No Bien Ni Mal, giving the race an international flavor and reminding bettors that this is not a local overnight but a true endurance test. At Churchill, the main question is not whether Parchment Party stays 1 1/2 miles. It is whether the pace and trip dynamics can expose him if he gets shuffled, pinned inside or forced to do too much too soon on a track that can punish the wrong journey.

Honor Marie’s winning time of 2:30.56 in last year’s edition shows the race can be run at a solid clip over the same distance, which only sharpens the stakes for this renewal. If Parchment Party runs to his Oaklawn and Saratoga form, he will strengthen his standing in the North American staying division and look every bit the horse to beat. If Churchill Downs turns the race into a tactics test, the favorite may have to prove that his stamina edge is as strong as the market expects.

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