Zany Tops Kentucky Oaks Rankings Ahead of Crucial Ashland Stakes

Todd Pletcher says Zany is "doing great." The market agrees, making her the 4-1 favorite in the lone Kentucky Oaks Future Wager. And yet, heading into the Grade I Central Bank Ashland Stakes at Keeneland, the unbeaten American Pharoah filly carries the lightest points total of any horse in the TDN's top five: just 30. That's the unresolved tension sitting at the center of this year's Oaks prep season. Every other heavyweight in the division has already done its work. Zany has to do hers this Friday.

The Ashland is the only Grade I on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks, distributing 100-50-25-15-10 qualifying points across a field of seven, with the winner guaranteed a spot in the Oaks field of 14. That makes Friday's race at Keeneland the last true gatekeeper before Churchill Downs. Here is where every major contender stands entering the weekend's final decision point.

1. Zany (American Pharoah)

With a lifetime record of 3-3-0-0 and a sales price of $350,000 as a yearling, Zany is the consensus top-ranked 3-year-old filly in training. Her sophomore debut in the Feb. 7 Suncoast Stakes produced an 81 Beyer Speed Figure, eight points slower than the Beyer she earned winning last year's GII Demoiselle Stakes, and she lugged in sharply through the stretch. Pletcher acknowledged the issue directly: "We will not try to overthink it since she's three-for-three. But we will continue to focus on keeping her straight when she changes leads." A Pletcher trainee returning from a nearly two-month freshening for the Ashland is not a novel script: past winners Malathaat, Nest, and Leslie's Rose all came through this barn, and this race, on the way to Churchill Downs.

2. Life of Joy (Gun Runner)

The points leader in the division with 122, Life of Joy is the horse everyone else is chasing. Brad Cox's filly won the GII Fair Grounds Oaks on March 21 by 3 3/4 lengths, producing an 86 Beyer that is the fastest figure posted by any filly in the Oaks prep cycle. Purchased for $375,000 at the 2024 Keeneland September sale, she has a lifetime record of 5-3-1-0 and earnings of $420,620. Cox is no stranger to this moment: he has sent out three Kentucky Oaks winners since 2018, including last year's Good Cheer (Medaglia d'Oro), and Life of Joy currently gives him the most bankable weapon in the division.

3. Counting Stars (Honor A.P.)

The surprise entry on this list, Counting Stars cost West Point Thoroughbreds just $150,000 at the OBS Spring Sale as a 2-year-old, making her the value story of the entire prep cycle. Trained by Mark Casse, she used the Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn to announce herself in a big way, winning to collect 100 Oaks points and vault into a three-way tie atop the qualifying standings. Her lifetime record sits at 6-3-1-0, and her Honor A.P. pedigree, a son of the distance-oriented Honor Code, sets up well for the mile-and-an-eighth demands of Churchill Downs.

4. Prom Queen (Quality Road)

Brad Cox's second entry in this ranking, and arguably the division's hottest horse, Prom Queen is a homebred for Gary and Mary West who arrived at the GII Gulfstream Park Oaks on March 28 with just one win on her record. She left with 100 Oaks points after a 2 3/4-length score, sitting just off a slow pace before taking over in the stretch. Her maiden win at Gulfstream produced an 83 Beyer, and her Quality Road pedigree, out of the mare Miss Bling Bling (Tapit), carries clear stamina credentials. Javier Castellano, who guided her to victory at Gulfstream, last won the Kentucky Oaks a decade ago with Cathryn Sophia in 2016.

5. Explora (Blame)

The richest filly on this list with lifetime earnings of $1,053,000 from a 7-4-3-0 record, Explora arrived at the March 27 Fantasy Stakes as the 1-1 favorite. She never made the gate. A fever forced Bob Baffert to scratch his Honeybee Stakes winner before the race, handing Counting Stars the stage and costing Explora a prime opportunity to build on her 95 Oaks points. Purchased for just $22,000 as a yearling before connections repped her up to $350,000 as a 2-year-old, Explora now heads to the Santa Anita Oaks as a secondary target. For all her talent, the scratch was the kind of bump the TDN noted is difficult to absorb on the road to a race as unforgiving as the Kentucky Oaks.

6. Meaning (Gun Runner)

The California division leader is also its biggest puzzle. Michael McCarthy's filly won the Las Virgenes Stakes at Santa Anita on Feb. 8 to collect 26 Oaks points, but critics quickly pointed out she had a dream trip that day and may have been aided by a perfect setup. A $440,000 yearling purchase from the 2024 Keeneland September sale, Meaning carries a 3-2-0-0 record into the GII Santa Anita Oaks, where she opened as the 3-5 morning line favorite, a price the TDN flagged as potentially short given the caliber of her competition. A win in Arcadia would answer the questions that have followed her all spring.

7. Bella Ballerina (Street Sense)

The Godolphin homebred trained by Brendan Walsh spent most of the winter at the top of this list, and her 110 Oaks points keep her comfortably inside the projected field of 14. But a loss changes a narrative, and Bella Ballerina's defeat as the even-money favorite in the GII Fair Grounds Oaks on March 21 changed hers. She tugged to the front too early, switched to the wrong lead in the stretch, and was beaten 3 3/4 lengths by Life of Joy. Walsh had predicted she would "improve a ton" off the Rachel Alexandra; instead, she is now defined by a race she failed to relax in. Her 4-3-1-0 lifetime record and $561,525 in earnings still make her a dangerous runner, but Churchill Downs will require the focused version.

8. Bottle of Rouge (Vino Rosso)

Purchased for $60,000 as a weanling and $100,000 as a yearling, Bottle of Rouge has quietly compiled a 6-4-1-0 record with $577,000 in earnings, including a Grade I win that separates her from much of this field. Trained by Bob Baffert for owner Natalie Baffert, she enters on the back of back-to-back wins in the Sunland Park Oaks and the Virginia Oaks. Her 57.50 Oaks points are enough to place her inside the bubble, but the TDN noted the class question will arrive in full force on Kentucky Oaks Day, since she has yet to face the quality assembled in positions one through seven of this ranking.

9. Forced Entry (Charlatan)

Sharing connections with Explora in the Pegram-Watson-Weitman ownership group and Baffert's barn, Forced Entry brings a 3-2-0-0 record and a GIII Santa Ysabel Stakes win on March 8 into the Santa Anita Oaks, where she opened as the 4-1 second choice. A $375,000 yearling from the 2024 Keeneland September sale, she has 50 Oaks points and sits just above the cut line, meaning a strong performance in Arcadia is necessary to secure her Oaks spot with any confidence. Baffert's California-based runners historically improve sharply between prep races, and the Charlatan filly's tactical pace profile gives her options in most trip scenarios.

10. She Be Smooth (Lexitonian)

The Calumet Farm homebred gives this ranking a second Todd Pletcher entry and a meaningful historical footnote: ten fillies have completed the Fair Grounds Oaks and Kentucky Oaks double, most recently Good Cheer in 2025. She Be Smooth secured a spot on the list with her GII Davona Dale Stakes victory, a win that announced her as a Pletcher-trained filly with enough stamina pedigree to handle Oaks distance. With 50 Oaks points and a crowded field of better-funded rivals ahead of her, she occupies the list's most precarious position. The Ashland will settle at least part of the equation, and depending on how the Santa Anita Oaks and Gazelle Stakes resolve Saturday, the bubble could shift beneath her before the weekend is over.