SEO value is real, but ROI math misses its impact

SEO value is still there, but the simplest ROI math is getting less honest by the month. Rob Tindula’s case is blunt: if you only count the clicks and conversions you can pin directly on organic search, you are missing the work SEO does before the sale, around the sale, and after the first visit. That matters even more now that Google results are crowded by AI Overviews, zero-click behavior is rising, and the path from query to conversion is harder to trace than it was in the old blue-link era.

The traffic problem is really a measurement problem

The first mistake agencies make is treating organic search like paid media with a slower clock. It is not. SEO results lag, tracking is less granular, and AI-generated answers can sit between the user and the site without sending clean referrer data back. SparkToro’s 2024 study put the scale of the problem in plain English: for every 1,000 Google searches in the United States, only 360 clicks went to the open web.

The trend has only intensified. SparkToro and Similarweb’s 2026 update said U.S. zero-click searches climbed from 60.45% in 2024 to 68% in 2026. Similarweb also says AI Overviews now appear on more than 20% of searches, and when they show up, click-through rates fall. Search Engine Land reported that Seer Interactive found organic CTR on informational queries with AI Overviews had fallen 61% since mid-2024, while paid CTR on those same queries dropped 68%.

That is the environment agencies are selling into. A clean traffic chart no longer tells the whole story, because some of the value is happening in the search results page itself. If the user gets the answer, remembers the brand, and returns later through another channel, the old report can make SEO look smaller than it really is.

Stop treating only growth as proof

This is where most ROI models break down. They act like SEO only matters when it produces fresh, incremental traffic that did not exist before. In a world with more zero-click searches and more AI-mediated results, defended traffic is a real business outcome too. Preserving visibility, protecting existing demand, and keeping a brand present when the search landscape is trying to absorb the click all have economic value.

That is also where branded search lift gets overlooked. A user may not click an informational result today, but the search exposure can still move them toward a branded query later. If your model only credits the last organic visit, you miss the earlier impression that made the brand more likely to win the next search. Similarweb has argued that the results page is increasingly becoming the destination, not just the starting point, which is another way of saying that influence is bigger than the last recorded session.

For agencies defending budgets, that is the argument that lands with executives. They do not just want proof that organic traffic grew. They want to know whether SEO helped preserve demand, create demand, and make the brand easier to choose when the buyer finally showed up.

Assisted conversions are where the money hides

The second blind spot is cross-channel influence. Search often starts the journey, supports the journey, and then disappears from the last click. That means organic can contribute to revenue without being the final touchpoint. If you only report last-click organic revenue, you are understating the channel in exactly the cases where it is working hardest.

Google Analytics now gives marketers cross-channel conversion reporting and attribution tools designed to connect paid and organic performance across channels. Google says those reports can assign credit to ads, clicks, and other factors before users trigger key events. That matters because it gives SEOs a way to show influence, not just closure.

For agencies, this is not a technical nicety. It is how you show that a content cluster supported a later branded search, that an informational page helped push a prospect into retargeting, or that organic exposure shortened the path to conversion even if the sale closed through another channel. When the report reflects that chain, SEO stops looking like a vanity traffic line and starts looking like part of the revenue system.

What a more complete ROI model should show

Tindula’s point is not that SEO math should become fuzzy. It should become more complete. The numbers that matter now are the ones that connect organic to the broader commercial picture, including revenue preservation, customer acquisition, assisted influence, and visibility across AI-assisted search interfaces.

A stronger agency model usually needs all of these pieces:

• direct organic revenue, so the baseline is still clear
• assisted conversions, so organic gets credit for helping close later sales
• branded search lift, so the model captures demand that search exposure helped create
• downstream revenue effects, so one page’s influence can be tracked beyond the first visit
• visibility in AI-heavy search results, so the model reflects how people actually encounter brands now

That approach takes more data digging and more math, but it also makes the budget conversation much easier. When an agency can show that SEO protected existing demand, helped close demand that surfaced elsewhere, and influenced the journey across AI-assisted results, the client is not being asked to believe in search on faith. The client is seeing a fuller commercial picture.

Why this matters to retainers, not just reports

This is where the business upside for agencies gets very real. A narrow ROI model makes SEO look like a line item that can be squeezed. A broader model makes SEO look like a platform that supports content, analytics, conversion strategy, and cross-channel planning. That is exactly the kind of framing that helps win executive buy-in and opens the door to higher-value retainers.

Search Engine Land’s June 22, 2026 piece, “3 ways to build a more complete SEO ROI model,” lands in a moment when agencies are being asked tougher questions about proof, efficiency, and what search is actually worth. Rob Tindula, who is director of SEO at NP Digital and brings more than 10 years of experience across local businesses and enterprise work, is pushing the field toward a more realistic answer. The old math still matters, but it is no longer enough to defend the full value of search.