Brazil winter corn harvest advances as Conab lifts 2025/26 output forecast

Conab on June 11 raised Brazil’s 2025/26 corn crop forecast to 140.46 million tonnes as the winter corn harvest reached 11% of planted area by June 20. The pace was up 4.3 percentage points from the prior week and only 0.7 point ahead of the same stage last year, but still below the five-year average of 15%.

The crop agency’s June 15-21 monitoring update said second-crop corn was moving fastest in Mato Grosso, where yields were above initial estimates. Dry weather helped maturity and harvest in the Center-West and Southeast, while rain slowed fieldwork in parts of Paraná and colder temperatures delayed operations in Mato Grosso do Sul. Harvest also had begun in Goiás and Maranhão.

Conab’s June 11 supply outlook put second-crop corn at 107.87 million tonnes, down 0.5% from the prior month and 4.7% below the previous year, while first-crop productivity was estimated at a record 7,110 kilograms per hectare. The agency also lifted its 2025/26 grain production estimate to 358.6 million tonnes, marking another upward revision from an earlier 354.8 million tonnes projection and reinforcing the size of Brazil’s coming corn supply.

For traders and ethanol producers, the key issue is not just volume but timing. Brazil’s second crop, or safrinha, carries most of the country’s corn balance and feeds both livestock rations and the fast-growing corn-ethanol sector. A harvest that is ahead of last year but still shy of the recent average points to more corn moving into the domestic pipeline through July and August, with Mato Grosso setting the tone for nearby supply and plant utilization.

That could keep pressure on export slots if interior logistics tighten, especially if rain in Paraná and slower cuts in Mato Grosso do Sul keep grain moving unevenly toward ports and processors. At the same time, the larger crop estimate suggests Brazil’s exportable surplus should remain ample later in the season, even as domestic corn demand from feed mills and ethanol plants continues to absorb more of the safrinha crop than in past years.

For U.S. producers, Brazil’s bigger 2025/26 corn outlook leaves fewer chances for a sustained export recovery if Brazilian shipments accelerate once the harvest clears. The current pace suggests the market is still working through field delays and regional bottlenecks, but the broader supply picture remains loose enough to cap corn values unless weather or logistics disrupt the flow later in the season.