EIA leaves renewable diesel forecast unchanged, signals steady market outlook

The U.S. Energy Information Administration left its renewable diesel outlook unchanged in the June Short-Term Energy Outlook, holding 2026 production at 240,000 barrels per day and 2027 output at 290,000 barrels per day. The agency also kept renewable diesel consumption at 220,000 barrels per day in 2026 and 300,000 barrels per day in 2027, a sign that EIA still sees a market that is large enough to matter, but not moving fast enough to force a forecast reset.

EIA said 2025 renewable diesel production was estimated at 190,000 barrels per day. It kept net imports negative this year before turning slightly positive next year, a reminder that trade flows remain part of the supply balance as the domestic market works through feedstock spreads, operating rates and demand from blenders.

The agency also left its broader other biofuels forecast unchanged at 40,000 barrels per day in 2026 and 50,000 barrels per day in 2027. In EIA’s taxonomy, other biofuels includes renewable heating oil, renewable jet fuel, renewable naphtha, renewable gasoline and other biofuels and biointermediates. That matters because it keeps sustainable aviation fuel inside a broader emerging-fuels bucket, rather than treating SAF as a standalone market in the short-term outlook.

The steady forecast lands against a slower growth backdrop. EIA has said U.S. biofuels production capacity increased only 3% from the start of 2024 to the start of 2025, and that the slowdown was driven largely by renewable diesel and other biofuels. In that same analysis, EIA said SAF, renewable naphtha and renewable propane make up virtually all of the other biofuels category, underscoring how small the market still is even as projects move from concept to commercial scale.

Trade is already material. In a June Today in Energy item, EIA said the United States exported nearly 50,000 barrels per day of renewable diesel and other biofuels in the second half of 2025, or about 20% of combined production. About half of those barrels went to Canada, with most of the rest heading to Europe. That export mix shows how quickly the sector can swing on foreign demand, policy treatment and arbitrage against domestic blending margins.

EIA has also framed the longer-term demand side through aviation. The agency said U.S. petroleum jet fuel consumption was about 1.6 million barrels per day in 2023, and that the White House set a goal of meeting 100% of U.S. aviation fuel demand with SAF by 2050. Against that scale, EIA’s 40,000-barrel-per-day and 50,000-barrel-per-day other biofuels forecast looks less like a breakout and more like a measured, incremental build.

The unchanged June outlook suggests EIA does not yet see a sharp turn in renewable diesel or SAF supply. Higher blending targets have pushed renewable identification number prices close to record highs, but the forecast implies the market still needs stronger feedstock economics, firmer policy signals or fewer project delays before the next revision points materially higher.