Gasoline demand lifts ethanol blending to 52-week high despite output dip

Fuel ethanol blending climbed to a 52-week high as the week ending May 22, 2026 lifted refiner and blender inputs 2.2% to 937,000 barrels per day, even as ethanol production fell 2% to 1.09 million barrels per day, or 45.74 million gallons per day. The Renewable Fuels Association said output was still 3.1% above a year earlier and 4.1% above the five-year average, with the four-week production pace annualized at 16.52 billion gallons.

The mismatch points to gasoline demand doing the heavy lifting. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly supply estimates showed finished motor gasoline production at 9.939 million barrels per day for the same week, while refinery runs averaged 17.0 million barrels per day and refinery utilization held at 94.5% of capacity. Because the EIA series includes a weekly adjustment for ethanol and gasoline blending components, the latest data underline how closely ethanol demand tracks gasoline market strength.

For the corn complex, the blend rate remains the number to watch. The Renewable Fuels Association’s monthly supply and demand tables put ethanol’s share of gasoline demand at 11.40% in December 2025 and 10.68% in January 2026, both readings that kept the industry near the top end of its recent range. The USDA Economic Research Service has said higher blend rates have helped keep domestic ethanol consumption steady even as finished motor gasoline demand softened, and USDA has kept 2025/26 corn use for ethanol at 5.5 billion bushels in its February and May 2026 outlooks.

Policy still provides a floor under demand. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency on March 27 finalized Renewable Fuel Standard volumes for 2026 and 2027 at 26.81 billion gallons and 27.02 billion gallons, respectively, and included a 70% reallocation of small-refinery exemptions granted for 2023 through 2025. The agency also issued a nationwide E15 summer waiver beginning May 1, 2026, keeping higher-ethanol gasoline on the market through the driving season.

The Renewable Fuel Standard, created in 2005 and expanded in 2007, remains central to ethanol economics, but the latest weekly data show how quickly the market can tighten if production eases while blending stays firm. For now, stronger gasoline demand is masking the dip in plant output, but the next turn in margins will depend on whether that demand proves durable enough to keep blending above 10% without a further rise in supply.