Higher blending targets push RIN prices near record highs
D4 RINs hit $2.41 and D6 RINs $2.37 on June 4, as EPA’s higher 2026-27 blending targets tightened the market and lifted biofuel margins.
Compliance credits for biomass-based diesel and ethanol climbed to levels near their 2021 peaks as EPA’s larger 2026 and 2027 blending mandates pushed the Renewable Fuel Standard market tighter. As of June 4, biomass-based diesel D4 RINs traded at $2.41 and ethanol D6 RINs at $2.37, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration said those credits had doubled in value since the start of 2026.
The rally has been driven primarily by higher U.S. biofuel blending targets. EPA finalized the 2026 and 2027 RFS rule on March 27, setting renewable volume obligations well above 2025 levels and including a 70 percent reallocation of small refinery exemptions granted for 2023 through 2025. EPA estimated the rule would require biodiesel and renewable diesel production and use to rise by more than 60 percent versus 2025 volumes, a shift that points to stronger demand for domestic soybean oil and other feedstocks.
At current prices, the economics are giving producers and blenders a clear signal. EIA said one gallon of biodiesel generates 1.5 RINs, while renewable diesel generates 1.6 to 1.7 RINs depending on the pathway, putting RIN value above $3.50 a gallon for those fuels. Fuel ethanol generates 1.0 RIN per gallon, and EIA said the ethanol discount to gasoline has been more than $2 a gallon in May and June once the RIN value is added, making ethanol more attractive to blend into motor gasoline.
The current move echoes, but exceeds, the last big run-up in 2021, when D6 RINs reached $1.90 a gallon and D4 RINs hit $2.00 a gallon on May 18. The market then fell sharply, with EIA reporting in February 2024 that D4 and D6 RINs had slid to about $0.41 and $0.40, respectively.
EIA forecast record-high production of fuel ethanol and renewable diesel in 2026, supported by the higher mandates, stronger gasoline and diesel prices and rising plant capacity. Industry groups backed the final rule. The Renewable Fuels Association said, “Today’s RFS rule supports continued growth in American-made renewable fuels like ethanol and brings much-needed certainty and stability to the marketplace.” The American Soybean Association said the 2026-2027 renewable volume obligations were “the most significant year-over-year improvement in Renewable Fuel Standard rulemaking for biomass-based diesel and, subsequently, for U.S. soybean farmers.”
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