India’s record grain harvest boosts corn output for ethanol demand
India lifted grain output to a record 376.6 million metric tons, with corn rising on ethanol demand as rice exports hit a projected 24 million tons.
India on May 27 raised its grain output estimate for crop year 2025/26 to a record 376.6 million metric tons. The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare said the third advance estimate reflected record harvests of rice, wheat, corn and pulses.
The US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service said the higher outlook was built on timely, adequate and well distributed 2025 monsoon rains and generally favorable weather across the country. The service has folded the latest official production figures into its supply-and-demand balance sheets for rice, wheat, corn, millet, sorghum and barley.
Corn is the feedstock line biofuels traders will watch most closely. The USDA’s June 2026 grain outlook put India’s corn production at 44 million metric tons in marketing year 2025/26, and said the crop is growing partly to support domestic ethanol targets and partly to meet poultry feed demand.
Rice and wheat are still doing more of the heavy lifting in the balance sheet. The FAS said India was on course for a third record wheat crop in marketing year 2025/26, while rice production was expected to steady at 143 million metric tons. Rice exports were forecast to climb to a record 24 million metric tons as the government liquidated excess stocks in the domestic market.
That combination leaves India with more grain, but not automatically more biofuel feedstock. The ministry said it had also reported record grain production of 357.7 million metric tons for crop year 2024/25 on November 20, 2025, underscoring how quickly output has moved higher. The June USDA report said the record rice and wheat surpluses will swell government food stocks and strain storage capacity and fiscal resources, while export restrictions on wheat and wheat products remain part of the policy backdrop.
For ethanol producers, the key question is whether the larger corn crop can translate into a steadier domestic grind or whether food security priorities, storage bottlenecks and export management keep most of the extra grain inside the food and feed pipeline. The USDA’s own framing suggests both forces are already at work, with corn pulled toward ethanol and poultry feed even as rice and wheat dominate the record harvest.
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