Study warns U.S. corn acres could drop 30 million without biofuels growth

U.S. Farmers and Ranchers in Action on June 16 warned that 30 million corn acres could disappear by 2050 if ethanol blending stays at 10% and no new biofuel markets emerge. The group’s new study, Fueling Agriculture: Biofuels as the Catalyst, said U.S. corn growers could end up planting roughly 31% fewer acres, a drop the report compared with a land mass about the size of North Carolina.

The analysis, completed by S&P Global Energy’s consulting group, set out a high-growth scenario that assumes technology is not constrained by food and fuel demand. In that case, higher ethanol blending and wider biofuel demand could keep corn acreage near current levels, instead of allowing planted area to slide as gasoline use erodes the blending pool.

USFRA said the report was unveiled at a Capitol Hill event that featured Sen. Chuck Grassley of Iowa, Sen. Tina Smith of Minnesota, USDA policy adviser Kelsey Barnes, S&P Global Energy analysts and USFRA leadership. Grassley, a longtime supporter of year-round, nationwide E15, has pushed Congress to clear legislation that would allow higher-ethanol blends to move through the market without seasonal limits. The House passed E15 legislation in May 2026, and the Senate was expected to take it up.

The report’s downside case is built around a market where on-road ethanol demand weakens almost 50% to about 6.6 billion gallons by 2050 as gasoline consumption falls and the blend rate stays fixed at 10%. That setup also assumes no meaningful lift from marine and aviation fuel markets, which the study cast as important outlets for corn-based and other biofuel production.

USFRA said the higher-growth path could lift corn yields by 1.6% a year through 2050 and unlock nearly 50% more production without adding acreage. The report tied that outlook to rural land use, farm income and the future of agribusiness jobs, arguing that weaker biofuel demand would translate into fewer family farms, closed equipment dealerships and less reason for young people to stay on the farm.

The acreage warning lands against a tighter near-term planting outlook from USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service, which said U.S. producers intended to plant 95.3 million corn acres in 2026, down 3% from 2025. That leaves biofuels policy, especially E15 and new liquid-fuel markets, as one of the few demand levers capable of holding corn use closer to current acreage economics.