Consumer confidence rises modestly, but gas prices cloud Dollar General outlook

Dollar General store teams may see a little less panic at the register, but not much room for relief. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose to 92.8 in April from a revised 92.2 in March, yet the group said the gain was modest and still overshadowed by higher gasoline prices and war-related worries.

The April survey ran from April 1 through April 22, a stretch that included the temporary two-week ceasefire beginning April 8 in the Middle East conflict. The Present Situation Index fell to 123.8, while the Expectations Index climbed to 72.2. The labor-market differential improved slightly to +7.5%, a sign that shoppers felt better about jobs even as they stayed guarded about the months ahead. Dana M. Peterson, the group’s chief economist, said gasoline prices remained a concern, and planned vacations slipped, a reminder that confidence and spending appetite are not the same thing.

For Dollar General, that split matters in the stores that serve rural and suburban communities where customers often drive farther to work, school and shopping trips. About 80% of Dollar General’s stores are in rural communities with populations under 20,000, so fuel costs can hit the chain’s shoppers fast. A customer who feels a little better about the economy may still trim the basket, skip discretionary items or compare prices more closely once the total starts climbing.

That is the kind of traffic pattern store associates already know well: essentials still move, but the extras get squeezed when gas prices rise. The Conference Board survey tracks buying intentions and vacation plans as well as confidence, which makes the drop in vacation plans another warning sign for retailers tied to road-trip spending and nonessential purchases. On the floor, that usually translates into more coupon hunting, more price checks and more shoppers trying to keep each trip short.

Dollar General has been leaning into that cautious consumer. In its fiscal fourth quarter of 2025, the company reported net sales of $10.9 billion and same-store sales growth of 4.3%. It said it opened 581 new stores in 2025 and plans 450 more in 2026. Management has projected 2026 same-store sales growth of 2.2% to 2.7%, a pace that assumes shoppers remain selective.

The company is also in the middle of a leadership transition. Dollar General named Jerry “JJ” Fleeman Jr. as its next chief executive on March 24, with a planned start date of January 1, 2027, replacing Todd Vasos. Fleeman will inherit a chain still dependent on low- and middle-income shoppers and still exposed to tariff pressure and higher fuel costs, two forces that can change what lands in the cart long before the headline sentiment numbers do.