Goldman bans staff from prediction markets tied to finance and politics

Goldman Sachs told employees they cannot participate in prediction-market contracts tied to financial markets and political events, drawing a sharper line around personal trading as the products move closer to mainstream finance. The ban, disclosed July 9, still allows sports and entertainment bets, but it pushes finance, elections, macro data and geopolitics into prohibited territory for people whose work can touch market-moving information.

Bloomberg said repeated violations could bring disciplinary action, including termination, and employees may have to forfeit gains from prohibited trades. CNBC said the restriction also covers contracts tied to Goldman itself, along with elections, financial markets, macroeconomic data and geopolitics. For analysts, associates, VPs and managing directors, that makes prediction markets less like casual wagering and more like another compliance perimeter built around conflicts, confidentiality and reputational risk.

The shift is notable because Goldman chief executive David Solomon called prediction markets “super interesting” on a Goldman podcast on Jan. 20, 2026, and CNBC reported in January that the bank was exploring opportunities in the space. By July, the firm had moved from curiosity to containment. That matters in a business where bankers, traders, researchers and economists sit close to client deals, macro views and internal debate over what the market might do next.

The regulatory backdrop has tightened as well. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Division of Market Oversight issued a prediction-markets advisory on March 12, 2026, and later published an advanced notice of proposed rulemaking seeking comment on whether new or amended event-contract rules are needed. The commission says event contracts have existed in regulated U.S. markets for more than two decades, but their recent surge has pulled them into sharper focus for compliance teams.

Goldman is not alone in writing new rules. Reuters said Morgan Stanley also added prediction-market limits to its employee code of conduct, though it did not specify the exact restrictions. The broader concern was underscored by the Google Polymarket insider-trading case, which alleged roughly $1.2 million in profits from prediction-market trading using confidential information. For Goldman staff, the message is clear: even a legal, retail-facing product can become a career risk if it overlaps with the firm’s trading, research or political work.