Goldman Sachs favors North Asia tech stocks over oil-shock exposed Asian peers

Goldman Sachs is leaning into North Asia’s tech-heavy equity markets with a relative-value trade that goes long South Korea and Taiwan while shorting India, the Philippines and Thailand. The call reflects a view inside the firm that the best risk-reward now sits where artificial intelligence demand is supporting earnings and exposure to the oil shock from the Iran war is lower.

The bank said 16 percentage points of its 23% MSCI emerging markets 2026 earnings growth forecast is being driven by AI-related demand, a cushion it expects to matter more in North Asia than in the region’s oil-sensitive south and southeast. Goldman argued that the recent slide in Asian stocks had already absorbed much of the shock from higher energy prices, leaving North Asia better positioned as investors sort winners from losers across the region.

That split sharpened in Goldman’s March 26 update, when the firm cut its 12-month target for the MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan index from 900 to 870 points. Even with the lower target, Goldman kept North Asia overweight, cut India to neutral and downgraded the Philippines to underweight. The message was not that Asia was unscathed, but that the damage was uneven and that the bank preferred markets tied to semiconductors, electronics and other AI-linked demand over those more exposed to imported energy costs.

Goldman had already warned on April 3 that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a supply shock that would ripple through global oil markets and hit Asia most directly. On April 16, the IMF echoed that concern, saying the war and the energy shock were testing Asia’s resilience by raising inflation, weakening external balances and narrowing policy options, even as the region remained the main engine of global growth.

For Goldman’s market strategists, that mix makes the trade around North Asia more than a regional call. It is a bet on where earnings revisions can still hold up if oil stays volatile and where clients can find relative value when broad Asian exposure looks too blunt. The same logic has been fed by quickly changing oil assumptions: Goldman trimmed its second-quarter 2026 Brent and WTI forecasts to $90 and $87 a barrel after the ceasefire agreement, underscoring how fast the market backdrop has been moving.

For analysts, associates and salespeople pitching Asia exposure to clients, the implication is clear. Goldman is not treating the region as one trade. It is slicing it into tech-driven winners and oil-shock losers, and putting North Asia on the better side of that divide.