Goldman Sachs' John Waldron says inflation remains top macro risk

For Goldman Sachs, John Waldron’s warning was less a macro headline than a management signal: inflation was still the biggest risk in the outlook, and that view has direct consequences for how bankers, traders and wealth advisers talk to clients.

Waldron, Goldman’s president and chief operating officer, made the case at Bernstein’s 42nd Annual Strategic Decisions Conference in New York. The gathering has long been one of Bernstein’s signature forums, bringing together independent equity analysts and chief executives from major companies. Goldman had said a month earlier that Waldron was scheduled to speak at 9:00 a.m. ET on May 28, underscoring the importance the firm put on the event and on his message.

The timing mattered. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said the personal consumption expenditures price index rose 3.8% in the 12 months through April, the hottest reading since May 2023. Core PCE rose 3.3% from a year earlier, while the monthly increase came in at 0.4% after a 0.7% jump in March. For a firm like Goldman, that kind of backdrop is not just about whether the Fed cuts sooner or later. It affects how clients think about borrowing costs, hedging, acquisitions and the pace of capital raises.

That is why Waldron’s comments landed as an internal read on the business, not just a view on inflation. Higher-for-longer rates can keep financing costs less predictable, make corporate boards more selective and raise the value of advice on balance-sheet strategy, derivatives and timing. It also changes the tenor of conversations inside Goldman, where coverage bankers, debt capital markets teams, trading desks and wealth advisers all have to translate a macro regime into executable decisions for clients.

Goldman’s own 2026 outlook materials point in the same direction. The firm’s economists expect sturdy global growth of 2.8% this year, versus a consensus forecast of 2.5%, while its macro outlook describes the backdrop as “sturdy growth, stagnant jobs, stable prices.” That combination suggests an economy that is still expanding, but one where inflation remains a live risk even as activity holds up.

The firm has already adjusted its policy view in that direction. Earlier this month, Goldman pushed back its first Federal Reserve rate-cut forecast, citing elevated inflation and labor-market strength. That makes Waldron’s remarks look less like a one-off warning and more like a senior-management version of Goldman’s broader market stance. For employees, the message is straightforward: in 2026, the firms that move capital efficiently and help clients navigate uncertainty will have the edge.