Goldman Sachs raises Tesla Q2 delivery forecast to 420,000 vehicles

Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney lifted Tesla’s second-quarter delivery estimate to 420,000 vehicles from 405,000, a move that put the call above Visible Alpha consensus and signaled that the quarter was “likely tracking ahead of consensus.” The revision was built from a regional read, not a broad market narrative, with Goldman leaning on monthly and weekly sales data from China, the U.S. and Europe.

Europe did most of the heavy lifting in the model. Goldman said registrations through May were up about 85% to 90% year over year, and June daily data pointed to a strong start to the month. Part of that jump reflects an easy comparison, since Tesla’s European deliveries fell 29% year over year in the second quarter of 2025. China also looked firmer, with CPCA data through May showing high single-digit year-over-year growth, while South Korea and Australia posted strong year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter results.

The U.S. was the weak spot. Goldman said deliveries through May were down in the mid-teens versus a year earlier. Still, the bank’s framework suggests Tesla can make up for softness in one region when the other major geographies move in the right direction. Goldman estimated that in 2025 the U.S. accounted for a mid-30% share of Tesla deliveries, China about 38% and Europe about 15%, which makes a swing in Europe or China material to the final number.

For Goldman’s research team, this is the kind of call that sits at the intersection of judgment and career optics. A higher Tesla forecast can stand out with clients only if it is backed by visible data and a clear explanation of why the consensus is too low. In a franchise where analysts are pressed to be early, differentiated and defensible, a move like Delaney’s can carry weight well beyond one quarter’s delivery print.

Tesla’s last reported quarter underscored why investors watch these numbers so closely. On April 2, 2026, the company reported first-quarter deliveries of 358,023 vehicles and production of 408,386, along with 8.8 GWh of energy storage deployments. Analysts had expected 370,000 deliveries, while a Tesla-compiled consensus published March 26 showed an average estimate of 365,645. Shares fell more than 5% after that report and were down about 20% in 2026 at the time.

Goldman’s higher delivery forecast did not amount to a bullish turn on Tesla. The bank kept a Neutral rating and a $375 price target, even as CEO Elon Musk continues to push the company toward autonomous vehicles, Cybercab, Optimus robots and other non-core projects. For now, deliveries remain Tesla’s closest proxy for sales, and Goldman’s revised call suggests the near-term read is improving even if the long-term thesis is not.