Goldman Sachs sees M&A volumes nearing 2021 record, backlogs stay strong

If Goldman Sachs is right that 2026 M&A volumes can get back near the 2021 peak, the pressure inside the franchise goes up as fast as the opportunity. A stronger advisory tape means fuller calendars for coverage bankers, product teams, capital markets desks and execution specialists, with more pitches, diligence, fairness opinions, financing commitments and closing work feeding straight into analyst and associate hours and, later, bonus expectations for the managing directors who own the relationships.

That was the message from John Waldron on May 28 in New York, where he told Bernstein’s 42nd Annual Strategic Decisions Conference at 9:00 a.m. ET that Goldman was “on track to be near the record, if not breaching the record of 2021,” and that “our backlogs feel good” and “activity is remaining strong.” For bankers, that is not a generic market slogan. It is a signal that the fight for live deal experience is likely to stay intense across the platform, with the most useful seats going to people who can turn thematic ideas into mandate coverage quickly enough to keep clients in play.

Goldman’s own 2026 outlook helps explain why the pipeline is not just a rebound story tied to rates or one clean macro turn. The firm says strategic transformation, private markets and flexible capital solutions are driving dealmaking, and it argues that AI is broadening the aperture for strategic transactions. Private markets matter too, because Goldman says sponsors are deploying capital and managing exits. The practical result for employees is a wider set of live work across AI, industrials, software and sponsor-backed deals, where speed, judgment and cross-sector fluency can matter as much as raw modeling hours.

The backdrop is already busy enough to support that view. Reuters reported that first-quarter 2026 global M&A topped $1.2 trillion, even as deal count fell 17% from a year earlier, suggesting larger transactions and more concentrated competition for fees. Goldman’s first-quarter results showed how much that translated into revenue: net revenues of $17.23 billion, net earnings of $5.63 billion and advisory revenues of $1.5 billion, up 89% year over year. The firm also said it remained the No. 1 M&A adviser globally.

Goldman’s comparison point is unmistakable. Its 2021 annual report said investment banking generated record net revenues of $14.88 billion, and the firm ranked No. 1 in worldwide announced and completed M&A, equity and equity-related offerings, common stock offerings and IPOs. Its 2025 annual report said Global Banking & Markets is positioned to capitalize on the upswing in strategic activity. If 2026 keeps tracking toward 2021 levels, the message inside Goldman is simple: more deal flow should mean more prestige, more strain and a tougher internal race to convert momentum into repeat business.