Goldman Sachs sees mortgage rates staying above 6.3% through 2027

Goldman Sachs is telling employees and recruits to expect mortgage rates to stay above 6.3% through 2027, a level that keeps the cost of moving, trading up or buying for the first time elevated. Freddie Mac put the average 30-year fixed rate at 6.49% on July 9, up from 6.43% a week earlier and 6.72% a year earlier, with its Primary Mortgage Market Survey published every Thursday from lender applications nationwide. On every $100,000 borrowed, a 30-year loan at 6.49% carries a principal-and-interest payment of about $631 a month, versus about $619 at 6.3%.

For Goldman staff deciding whether to accept a transfer to New York, Dallas or Salt Lake City, that gap matters because it raises the penalty for leaving one home and buying another. Goldman Sachs Research has said homeowners have little incentive to move when buying the same house means a much bigger monthly mortgage payment, and that calculation is especially sharp for analysts, associates and VPs trying to time a move around compensation, bonus cycle and the next office switch. The longer rates stay elevated, the longer renting can look like the safer option for anyone who expects another career move before settling down.

The firm’s broader housing work shows why the rate outlook is not just a macro call. Goldman Sachs Research says U.S. housing affordability has declined sharply over the last decade and worsened after the pandemic as mortgage payments and rent rose faster than income. It estimates the country needs roughly 3 million to 4 million more homes beyond normal construction to restore affordability, and says restrictive land-use rules are the biggest supply constraint. That shortage keeps pressure on both buyers and renters, especially in high-cost markets where a move can mean paying up twice, once in rent and again in financing.

The 6.3% threshold also shows how far the outlook has shifted. In January 2024, Goldman Sachs had expected 30-year mortgage rates to fall to 6.3% by the end of that year. Now the same level has become a ceiling that Goldman does not expect rates to break through for at least another two years. The National Association of Realtors says its Housing Affordability Index measures whether a typical family earns enough to qualify for a mortgage on a typical home, now using only a 30-year benchmark after the Federal Housing Finance Agency stopped releasing some mortgage-rate series in 2019. Its next monthly update is due August 11, 2026, and the National Association of Home Builders has said a 25-basis-point drop from 6.25% to 6.0% could bring 1.42 million additional households into the market. Until rates move materially lower, staying mobile will remain the cheaper choice for many Goldman employees.