Goldman Sachs sees Spain dropping out of top economies by 2050

Goldman Sachs expects Spain to fall out of the world’s largest economies by 2050, overtaken by Egypt, Indonesia and Nigeria as growth power shifts further toward emerging markets. In the bank’s long-range view, the countries with the five biggest economies in 2050 will be China, the United States, India, Indonesia and Germany, with Indonesia also moving ahead of Brazil and Russia among the largest emerging markets.

That forecast comes from Goldman Sachs’ Dec. 8, 2022 report, The Path to 2075 - Slower Global Growth, But Convergence Remains Intact, which expands its projections to 104 countries through 2075. The central message is blunt: the world’s fastest growth years are probably behind it, because population growth is weakening. For Goldman bankers using the report in client conversations, that means the long game is no longer about assuming broad-based expansion everywhere, but about identifying which regions still have the demographics to keep compounding.

Spain is not a small economy today. The World Bank lists its 2025 GDP at about $1.906 trillion. The International Monetary Fund says Spain’s growth should stay significantly above the euro-area average in the near term, supported by services exports and labor-force growth, before slowing as demographic aging intensifies. That makes Spain a useful case study for Goldman’s pitch to clients: a country can look healthy in the cycle and still drift down the long-run rankings if its population ages faster than its peers.

Goldman’s own 2025 work on aging makes that point even sharper. Its research says extending working lives is the most effective way to offset higher dependency ratios, a message with obvious relevance for employers, pension systems and governments trying to keep growth alive as the workforce shrinks. For Goldman staff advising sovereigns, corporates and investors, the implication is practical: capital allocation, hiring plans and deal flow are likely to tilt toward younger, faster-growing markets.

That is why the bank’s long-run maps matter beyond the headline about Spain. Goldman says emerging Asia will drive much of the shift in global economic weight over the long run, with Asia’s powerhouses doing the heavy lifting of convergence. For employees on the sales, research and banking side, the forecast is a reminder of where clients will keep asking for exposure, where expansion capital will follow, and which geographies are most likely to shape the next generation of mandates.