Goldman Sachs sees sturdy growth, broader bull market in 2026

Goldman Sachs is heading into 2026 with a message that should matter to anyone selling, pricing, or staffing work inside the firm: the base case is not slowdown, but sturdier growth that keeps capital moving. The outlook hub pulls together the views of Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson, David Kostin, Josh Schiffrin, Stephan Feldgoise, Tim Ingrassia, Ben Snider, David Dubner, and Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani into one firmwide script clients are likely to hear repeatedly. For Goldman employees, that script matters because it shapes what gets pitched, where demand lands, and which teams end up with the most leverage.

The macro setup is supportive, not sleepy

Goldman Sachs Research sees global real GDP rising 2.8% in 2026, ahead of the 2.5% consensus, and U.S. growth at 2.6% versus a 2.0% consensus forecast. That is the kind of gap that gives bankers and traders a usable story: the world is still expanding, and the U.S. is expected to keep outperforming rather than handing leadership back to a synchronized slowdown. The firm’s broader country view also points to China growing 4.8%, the UK at 1.4%, and Germany at 1.1%, which signals that the recovery is uneven, but still intact across major markets.

That nuance matters inside Goldman because it affects how teams allocate attention. If the U.S. stays stronger than peers, U.S.-centric financing, equity issuance, and market positioning should command more airtime. If China and Europe are positive but slower, the work becomes more selective: fewer broad calls, more targeted pitches tied to fiscal support, policy easing, and specific sectors that can actually clear a client committee.

Rates and Fed cuts are part of the bull case, not the threat to it

Goldman’s markets team is not selling a blind risk-on story. Its argument is that sturdy global growth, paired with non-recessionary Federal Reserve cuts, should be supportive for equities even if valuations stay hot enough to create volatility. That distinction is important for employees who live with client questions about whether easier policy means a soft landing or an overextended market. Goldman’s answer is effectively: cuts are a tailwind, but the market still needs earnings to do the heavy lifting.

The firm also reduced its recession probability over the next 12 months from 30% to 20% in its January U.S. macro note. That is a meaningful internal signal because it changes the tone of conversations across desks. Fewer recession fears mean less defensive positioning in client discussions, more room to talk about financing activity, and a better setup for businesses that rely on confidence, like ECM, M&A, and wealth advisory.

Equities are being sold as an earnings story, not a multiple story

Goldman’s 2026 market thesis is that the rally is broadening and earnings are driving returns rather than valuation expansion. The firm says global stocks are projected to return 11% over the next 12 months, including dividends in U.S. dollars, and its January outlook said the S&P 500 is expected to rally 12% this year. Goldman later raised its year-end S&P 500 target to 7,600, based on 12% EPS growth in 2026, and then lifted it again to 8,000, saying AI infrastructure investment could account for about half of earnings growth.

That last point is where the macro story becomes a staffing and coverage story. If AI capex is carrying a large share of earnings growth, then a lot of the upside is concentrated in the companies funding that buildout, not just the beneficiaries downstream. For Goldman staff, that means more work explaining where the money is going, who is paying for it, and which industries get squeezed when hyperscale spending stays elevated. It also means the AI trade is not just a tech story anymore; it is a capital allocation story that reaches into buybacks, balance sheets, and sector rotation.

At the same time, Goldman’s call for a broadening bull market suggests the opportunity set is not limited to the biggest names. If earnings growth is widening across the index, then more sectors can participate, which matters for equity sales, research, and wealth teams trying to keep clients from overconcentrating in the same crowded names. The firm is also warning that hot valuations could increase volatility, so the message is not complacency. It is that volatility may be a feature of a still-positive market, not proof that the call is broken.

Deal teams have a more workable backdrop than they did in the slump years

The clearest immediate business implication inside Goldman is for investment banking. Goldman’s M&A team says 2026 will be shaped by strategic transformation, private markets, and flexible capital solutions, and the bankers’ base case is that pure M&A volume could reach $3.8 trillion. That is a significant number because it implies a healthier pipeline for advisers, product specialists, and execution teams who have spent much of the past cycle working through choppy deal conditions.

Goldman’s M&A leadership also says the back half of 2025 produced an exceptional year rivaling 2021 record volumes, powered by open financing markets, strategic activity, elevated private-equity activity, and abundant capital. That matters for junior bankers and associates because stronger deal volume usually means less dead time, more live processes, and more pressure to keep up with the pace. It also matters for compensation and career trajectory: a busier M&A market tends to reward teams with stronger league-table momentum and can widen the gap between groups with live flow and those waiting for a rebound that never quite arrives.

The outlook hub points to a 2026 Global M&A Outlook and an Investment Banking outlook for a reason. Goldman wants the macro case, the financing case, and the client pitch to line up. If growth holds and rates ease without a recession, corporates are more likely to pursue strategic changes, private equity can stay active, and flexible financing becomes a competitive tool rather than a bailout mechanism.

Wealth and asset allocation are being organized around the same thesis

Goldman’s Wealth Management business is part of the same framing, and Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani’s presence in the outlook content underlines that the message is meant to travel beyond banking. For wealth teams, the practical read is straightforward: a sturdy-growth, earnings-led bull market supports a constructive allocation stance, but not one that ignores concentration risk or valuation pressure. Clients will want to know whether the next leg of the market is broad enough to justify moving out on the risk curve, or whether it is still too dependent on a handful of AI winners.

That is where Goldman’s integrated platform becomes a real internal advantage. The same house view can be translated for ultra-high-net-worth clients, institutional investors, public-company CFOs, and the bankers trying to win mandates from all of them. For employees, especially VPs and managing directors, the benefit is not just consistency. It is the ability to move a conversation from macro backdrop to action item without losing credibility.

The takeaway for Goldman staff is simple: 2026 is being framed as a year when the firm expects growth to stay sturdy, equities to keep climbing, and deal activity to improve enough to matter for staffing and revenue. The details are still uneven by region and by sector, but the direction is clear. If Goldman is right, the work ahead will be less about defending against a downturn and more about deciding where the upside is real enough to chase.