Goldman Sachs sees US-Iran deal pushing oil prices lower

Goldman Sachs said the US-Iran deal would push oil prices lower, but not all the way back to pre-war levels any time soon, leaving traders and bankers to think beyond the first headline move. Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research and head of oil research, said the market was likely to fall further as the deal worked through barrels, inventories, shipping flows and pricing.

Goldman Sachs Research projected Brent crude would average $75 a barrel next year, down from roughly $80 at the time of the podcast. That is a meaningful reset, but not a collapse, and the distinction matters for anyone inside the firm who has to translate geopolitics into trade ideas, risk management and client advice. The message from Struyven’s June 17 discussion was that the immediate market reaction is only the start of the story.

The slow part is what comes next. Struyven pointed to lingering effects from the conflict, low inventories and even the possibility that the Strait of Hormuz never fully reopens. Those details are not background noise for commodities desks. They shape whether the market can actually absorb new supply, how quickly inventories can be rebuilt and whether shipping routes stay constrained longer than the news cycle expects.

For Goldman employees working in markets, macro and financing, the implication is that oil may stay volatile even after the first shock fades. A lower Brent path can feed through to inflation expectations, airline and transport hedging, sovereign risk in oil-linked economies and broader positioning in rates and equities. That changes how desks frame the next few weeks of client conversations, especially when the question is no longer whether oil reacts to a headline, but how long the repricing lasts and which sectors benefit or suffer from the new equilibrium.

Inside a bank like Goldman Sachs, that difference is practical. It separates a short-lived trade call from a more durable client franchise conversation, and it forces teams across commodities, financing and macro to adjust their near-term energy narratives accordingly.