Goldman Sachs starts India metals coverage, bullish on JSW Steel, Shyam Metalics

Goldman Sachs has moved to cover India’s metals and mining space with a clear bet: domestic steel demand is now strong enough to matter more than the global cycle. The firm started JSW Steel and Shyam Metalics at Buy, with target prices of INR 1,490 and INR 1,065, while it stayed Neutral on Tata Steel and Jindal Steel and cut NMDC to Sell.

The call lines up with a broader shift in how analysts are reading India’s steel market. Industry and broker reports have put domestic demand growth at roughly 8% to 10% a year, and Nomura said in March 2026 that earnings in the sector are being driven more by India’s own dynamics than by global factors such as China. HSBC made a similar point when it initiated coverage on Indian metal stocks in November 2025, arguing that robust local demand was a key support for the sector.

Goldman’s own macro view helps explain the timing. Goldman Sachs Research has forecast India’s real GDP growth at 6.9% in 2026 and said easier financial conditions, along with a new U.S.-India trade deal, could help unlock a private investment cycle. For commodities investors, that is a notable shift in emphasis: the case for Indian steel is no longer just about import protection or a fleeting pricing upcycle, but about a domestic capex story that could keep mills running harder for longer.

JSW Steel is the clearest expression of that thesis. The company has been expanding aggressively, including a 50:50 joint venture with POSCO to build a 6 mtpa integrated steel plant in Odisha. It also reported an all-time high crude steel production of 7.90 million tonnes in a recent quarter, with domestic sales up 14% year on year. Those numbers help explain why JSW is drawing attention from brokers who now see domestic demand as the main engine of earnings.

Shyam Metalics, meanwhile, gives Goldman another way to play the same theme, with a smaller-cap name tied closely to India’s industrial buildout. At the other end of the list, NMDC faces a harder setup as private players expand iron-ore output and pressure market share. The broader message from Goldman’s coverage is that India’s metals cycle may be entering a phase where local demand, not China, sets the tone for the next leg of returns.