Goldman says Asian LNG rebound could lift European gas prices
Asian LNG imports are running 4 mtpa above Goldman’s forecast, a rebound that could pull cargoes from Europe and lift TTF far above the bank’s base case.
A rebound in Asian LNG buying is starting to squeeze the spare cargoes that had been cushioning Europe, and Goldman Sachs now sees that turning into a fresh upside risk for European gas prices. The bank said preliminary May imports across Asia were running about 4 mtpa above its 225 mtpa forecast, with China and South Korea doing much of the heavy lifting.
China’s LNG imports had risen to a four-week average of 48 mtpa from 36 mtpa in March, while South Korea’s imports climbed to 42 mtpa, above April levels. Goldman expects China’s demand to keep building to around 67 mtpa in the third quarter as inventories are rebuilt to slightly above last year’s levels. The market is already leaning that way: the JKM premium over TTF widened to $1.87/mmBtu in May from $1.59 in April, a sign that Asian buyers are willing to pay more to secure supply.
That matters because Europe had been benefiting from the opposite setup. Weak Asian demand had freed up cargoes and bought Europe time, helping keep the continent relatively comfortable even as gas markets stayed volatile. Goldman warned that this cushion could fade quickly if summer demand accelerates and storage rebuilding gathers pace. In other words, the market has not just been pricing gas, it has been pricing the absence of a scramble.
The bank’s earlier April 2 note was even starker. It argued that Europe’s gas market was underestimating the risk from disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, where about 19% of global LNG supply, or 80 mtpa, moves through a chokepoint that Goldman said was already contributing to a daily loss near 300 mcm of LNG flows. March imports into North West Europe beat Goldman’s expectations by 33 mcm/d, but that resilience depended in part on Asia staying soft. Goldman had said if the LNG supply shock lasted beyond April, TTF could test 75 to 100 euros/MWh.
For Goldman employees talking to clients, the new note sharpens the script. Energy traders need to watch the widening JKM-TTF spread for cross-market risk. Macro teams can point to a simple chain: stronger Asian buying, fewer cargoes for Europe, firmer TTF. Corporate bankers covering chemicals, industrials, logistics and other energy-intensive sectors now have a clearer hedging conversation, because Goldman’s current base case of 44 euros/MWh in Q3 2026 and 40 euros in Q4 can move materially to 65 euros and 53 euros if Hormuz disruptions persist beyond its late-June base case. The real risk is not that gas disappears from the market, but that Europe has to pay more to keep it there.
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