Goldman sees IPO window open despite Iran war and volatility

Goldman Sachs dealmakers are getting a rare combination of signals: IPO activity is still fragile, but the window is not shut. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. led the first-quarter 2026 ranking for revenue from deals including initial public offerings and share sales, with Goldman at $535 million and JPMorgan at $472 million, even as the war in Iran weighed on issuance across Wall Street.

For bankers inside Goldman, that matters beyond the headline. A stronger IPO market means more live mandates, more modeling work, and a better chance that analysts and associates land on transactions that actually get to market. It also gives senior bankers a reason to keep hiring and keep coverage teams warm, instead of assuming the pipeline will stay stuck in a slow, defensive mode.

Goldman’s own first-quarter numbers help explain the tone. The firm reported net revenues of $17.23 billion, net earnings of $5.63 billion and diluted earnings per share of $17.55. Annualized return on average common shareholders’ equity was 19.8 percent, and Global Banking & Markets generated a record $12.7 billion in revenue. In a year when dealmakers have been waiting for confirmation that equity capital markets could reaccelerate, those results give Goldman management more room to argue that the cycle is improving rather than merely bouncing.

The broader market picture is still mixed. Wall Street’s biggest banks began 2026 with strong gains in equity capital markets revenue, but the Iran war has made pricing new listings harder and kept some companies on the sidelines. That is exactly the sort of environment that has produced false dawns before, with bankers talking up a reopening that never quite lasts long enough to fill the calendar. What is different now is that the numbers are starting to move together: stronger first-quarter ECM revenue, a healthier equity backdrop, and a more explicit forecast for issuance ahead.

Goldman strategists led by Ben Snider said in February that U.S. IPO proceeds could climb to about $160 billion in 2026, with roughly 120 IPOs, up from 61 deals in 2025. They said the rebound would be supported by improving economic growth, stronger equity prices and easier financial conditions. The pipeline they pointed to was led by software and healthcare issuers, with late-stage tech and AI companies expected to account for much of the proceeds.

For Goldman employees, that is the key shift. The market is still volatile, and geopolitics can freeze the window fast. But if the second half of 2026 brings even part of the rebound Goldman is signaling, the result would be more fees, more execution work and more visible opportunities for juniors trying to break out of routine coverage into marquee live deals.