Goldman sees strong 2026 M&A, retail-heavy IPOs ahead
Waldron said Goldman’s M&A pipeline is nearing 2021’s record while SpaceX and OpenAI could reshape IPO allocations, client conversations, and fund positioning.
John Waldron’s message to Goldman Sachs watchers was less about a hot IPO tape than about the psychology needed to sell the next wave of giant listings. Speaking at Bernstein’s 42nd Annual Strategic Decisions Conference on May 28, 2026, Goldman’s president said the bank’s 2026 M&A volumes were on track to approach the 2021 record, with backlogs holding up and activity still strong. For Goldman bankers, that is the real signal: deal appetite has returned, but it is still being tested by how much conviction investors will bring to marquee offerings.
That conviction matters because Goldman is already at the center of the most closely watched names in the pipeline. Reuters reported that Goldman secured the lead-left role on SpaceX’s planned IPO, with Morgan Stanley also in the lead underwriting group. The bank’s presence in that deal gives it a front-row seat to how much pricing power and structural creativity will be needed if Elon Musk’s company tries to come public at the scale the market expects. It also raises the stakes for Goldman’s own advisory posture. A successful debut would burnish the franchise; a stumble in a headline deal would travel quickly through every client conversation afterward.
The retail piece is what makes this round feel different from the usual institutional roadshow. OpenAI chief financial officer Sarah Friar said the company planned to reserve a portion of IPO shares for retail investors, and Reuters reported that SpaceX may be considering a retail allocation of up to roughly 30 percent, far above the usual norm. That is not just a marketing flourish. It changes how banks think about distribution, who gets access, and how much stock is left for the funds that traditionally anchor these deals.
It also changes the plumbing underneath the offering. Reuters reported on May 27, 2026 that large mutual funds and passive index funds were already setting aside cash and preparing to trim some large-cap holdings so they could absorb blockbuster listings like SpaceX and OpenAI. In other words, mega-IPOs could force benchmark-driven investors to sell existing positions just to make room, with ripple effects that can reach retirement accounts and index trackers. For Goldman, that makes these listings as much about portfolio rotation as they are about first-day pops.
The broader pipeline, including SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic, is shaping up as a test of whether public markets can still absorb highly valued private companies at scale. For Goldman, the opportunity is obvious. The risk is just as clear: in a reopened but still fragile IPO environment, the firm has to prove it can place these names without overpromising the market’s capacity to carry them.
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