Goldman trader says dollar could keep rising on Fed and geopolitical risks

Goldman Sachs’ Brian Dunne said the U.S. dollar still had room to strengthen, pointing to interest-rate differentials, a more hawkish Federal Reserve outlook and geopolitical strain. On the July 10 episode of The Markets, the head of Americas Foreign Exchange Options Trading in Goldman Sachs Global Banking & Markets treated the currency move as a live trading issue rather than a broad macro call.

Recent dollar strength has been supported by conflict between the United States and Iran, the persistence of the AI trade and a possible shift in the Fed’s rate path toward a firmer stance. The AI trade is linked to U.S. exceptionalism, with many of the companies at the center of the boom listed in the United States and delivering strong earnings.

For sales and markets teams, a stronger dollar changes the conversation fast. It can affect commodity pricing, multinational revenue expectations and the cost of hedging for clients with overseas exposure. It also changes how foreign investors think about U.S. assets, influencing demand for dollar funding, cross-border financing and the economics of deals that rely on future cash flows in different currencies. Clients ask about timing, exposure and whether to lock in protection now or wait for a better entry point.

The market has started to price in a more hawkish committee. For Goldman bankers working on M&A valuation, capital allocation and international financing, that shift feeds directly into deal models and pitch discussions, because a stronger dollar can widen spreads and alter transaction economics.