Goldman warns AI bond boom may crowd out credit demand

The four biggest tech companies had already sold more than $170 billion in corporate debt this year, and Goldman Sachs is warning that pace could start to crowd out credit demand. In a June 29 video recorded on June 17, Max Lukianchikov of Goldman Sachs Global Banking & Markets said that total is already above what those issuers sold in all of 2025 and more than four times their pre-AI annual average.

For Goldman’s syndicate, credit, and coverage bankers, that matters because the market is still taking the paper down on yield, not on scrutiny. Lukianchikov said investors have been focused on the overall level of yield rather than credit risk, while spreads remain extremely tight and volatility stays low. That is a workable backdrop when Treasury yields are high enough to make modest spreads look attractive, but it gives little cushion if AI spending keeps climbing and supply begins to outrun demand.

A June 25 fixed-income outlook from Goldman Sachs Asset Management said a surge in AI-related issuance has expanded supply across the fixed-income spectrum. The concern is no longer limited to a handful of headline tech deals. As more money is raised in debt rather than equity, the bond market starts to look less like a passive source of financing and more like a gatekeeper for how fast the AI build-out can continue.

That shift changes the work for the bank’s front line. Syndicate teams have to decide which issuers can still clear at scale, credit bankers have to watch leverage and maturity profiles more closely, and coverage bankers have to judge when pricing power is starting to slip. Relative value across the capital stack becomes more important, because the market rewards the strongest names while pressing weaker ones to pay up.

The pressure is already visible beyond the United States. Big Tech bond deals are reshaping corporate debt markets across Europe, Japan, and Switzerland, with Alphabet already among the largest outstanding borrowers in the euro, sterling, Swiss franc, and yen markets. Amazon’s 14.5 billion euro deal in March, an eight-part offering, was the largest ever in the euro corporate bond market at the time. BNP Paribas’ Giulio Baratta and JPMorgan’s John Servidea said larger capital-raising opportunities now exist outside the U.S. than in past cycles.