Goldman warns higher energy prices could slow China exports, boost clean tech
Higher energy prices could dent China exports in the near term, but Goldman says the same shock may accelerate demand for batteries, solar cells and EVs.
Goldman Sachs is telling clients to think in two time frames at once: a near-term hit to China’s exporters from higher energy prices, and a longer-term boost for the country’s clean-tech champions.
Goldman Sachs Research said China’s GDP could slow to about 4% quarter-over-quarter annualized in the second quarter of 2026 as the energy shock works through trade channels. The firm pointed to the Strait of Hormuz, where about 25% to 30% of global oil and 20% of liquefied natural gas pass through, as the chokepoint that makes energy importers more exposed than exporters. For Goldman bankers and strategists covering Asia, commodities, industrials and the energy transition, that changes the client conversation now: the question is not just whether China growth holds up, but which sectors absorb the hit first.
The near-term squeeze matters because emerging-market economies accounted for more than half of China’s nominal exports in 2025, and Goldman said lower-income economies contributed 2 percentage points of China’s 5.4% nominal export growth, up from 1.8 percentage points in the 2019 to 2024 period. Those buyers are also the most vulnerable to an energy price spike. Goldman said China’s export value still rose 14.7% year over year in the first quarter of 2026, even as property and auto sales posted double-digit declines, underscoring how far the gap has widened between external demand and domestic softness.
That split matters inside Goldman because it changes how clients stress-test supply chains, capital spending and regional demand. A sovereign buyer in South Asia, an industrial customer in Europe or a commodity-linked borrower in Latin America may all respond differently if fuel costs stay elevated. The bank’s read is that short-term export softness is a sequencing problem, not a simple China collapse: clients may need to assume weaker order flow now, then reassess the financing and advisory pipeline once the energy shock eases.
The longer-term case runs in the opposite direction. Goldman said the same pressure on hydrocarbons could accelerate a global shift toward energy security, which would favor China’s so-called new three: solar cells, batteries and electric vehicles. A 2023 trade report showed exports of those products rising from under $20 billion in 2017 to more than $150 billion in 2023, with China controlling 68% of global EV production, 74% of battery production and 86% of solar module production. More recently, Reuters-cited customs data showed Chinese solar panel exports hit a record $3.61 billion in March 2026, reinforcing the idea that the clean-tech tailwind was already building.
For Goldman employees, the practical takeaway is that China coverage is no longer just about headline GDP or property stress. It is about who is buying China’s exports, which sectors are most exposed to energy shocks, and how quickly clients want to reposition toward batteries, solar, EVs and the financing tied to them. In a year when domestic car sales have fallen for seven straight months and export growth still leads the story, the gap between weakness at home and strength abroad is where the business is likely to be won.
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