Holiday hiring could hit 16-year low as Home Depot faces pressure

A thinner seasonal bench could show up first in the aisles, not on a labor chart. Challenger, Gray & Christmas projected that retail hiring for the 2025 holiday season would drop to its lowest level since 2009, with retailers adding fewer than 500,000 jobs in the final three months of the year, the smallest seasonal gain in 16 years and about an 8 percent decline from 2024.

That matters inside The Home Depot long before December. The company’s business is built around peak periods that can hit in spring, summer, and fall, when weather-driven projects, pro demand, and garden and outdoor traffic all surge at once. Home Depot said in its 2025 annual report that it operates more than 2,300 stores in the United States, Canada and Mexico, and that knowledgeable associates and on-shelf availability are critical to the store experience. Its 2024 report said it had 2,000-plus stores and 19 direct fulfillment centers, with fiscal 2024 sales of $159.5 billion and net earnings of $14.8 billion. For stores, fewer seasonal applicants would likely mean tighter coverage at the front end, less flexibility for time-off requests, more pressure on freight teams, and more frequent gaps on the sales floor when departments need backup.

Challenger said the softer outlook reflects tariffs, lingering inflation pressure and a greater reliance on automation and permanent staff instead of big seasonal hiring waves. The firm said retailers added 543,100 jobs in the final quarter of 2024, down nearly 4 percent from 2023, and noted that retail employment often dips in September as teens and college-aged workers return to school before picking up again in the fourth quarter. That timing puts extra pressure on managers who usually depend on a wave of short-term applicants to cover the season.

Home Depot has shown before how aggressively it can staff up when it wants to. In February 2022, the company said it was hiring more than 100,000 associates ahead of its busy spring season, with openings in customer service and sales, store support, freight, merchandising and warehouse roles. The company said applicants could receive an offer within one day. In a tougher labor market, that kind of rapid fill strategy may be harder to repeat, even as other employers also chase the same workers. Bath & Body Works planned 32,000 holiday hires, Spirit Halloween said it would add 50,000 workers, and Geodis said it would bring on 4,600.

The cultural strain can be just as sharp as the staffing strain. When hiring is tight, a seasonal associate who leaves after a few shifts is not a small loss, it is a lost training investment and one more hole in the week’s schedule. Home Depot has said it is investing in associates through training, product knowledge, simpler tasks and technology, and its 2025 report said fiscal 2025 sales rose to $164.7 billion even as net earnings fell to $14.2 billion. The company also told investors it plans to keep building 15 to 20 stores a year after completing its roughly 80-store plan in 2027. That means the pressure is not just to find bodies for the rush, but to keep service standards intact while the chain keeps growing.